Recent polls from institutes including Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Infratest dimap, and INSA place the AfD at 17-18% for the September 20 Berlin state election, roughly double its 2023 share and consistent with the market's leading 17-20% range. The party's gains reflect broader national momentum from voter concerns over immigration, economic conditions, and dissatisfaction with established parties, reinforced by its strong performance in the recent Saxony-Anhalt contest. Berlin-specific polling shows a tight multi-party race with the Linke and CDU near or above 20%, while other mainstream parties rule out coalitions with the AfD. This dynamic supports the current trader consensus that the AfD will finish in the upper teens, with outcomes above 20% or below 14% viewed as less probable based on the latest survey data.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于17-20% 51%
14-17% 24%
20%+ 19%
低于14% 3.5%
$23,621 交易量
$23,621 交易量
2026-09-20
低于14%
4%
14-17%
24%
17-20%
51%
20%+
19%
17-20% 51%
14-17% 24%
20%+ 19%
低于14% 3.5%
$23,621 交易量
$23,621 交易量
2026-09-20
低于14%
$3,083 交易量
4%
14-17%
$5,338 交易量
24%
17-20%
$6,076 交易量
51%
20%+
$9,124 交易量
19%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls from institutes including Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Infratest dimap, and INSA place the AfD at 17-18% for the September 20 Berlin state election, roughly double its 2023 share and consistent with the market's leading 17-20% range. The party's gains reflect broader national momentum from voter concerns over immigration, economic conditions, and dissatisfaction with established parties, reinforced by its strong performance in the recent Saxony-Anhalt contest. Berlin-specific polling shows a tight multi-party race with the Linke and CDU near or above 20%, while other mainstream parties rule out coalitions with the AfD. This dynamic supports the current trader consensus that the AfD will finish in the upper teens, with outcomes above 20% or below 14% viewed as less probable based on the latest survey data.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
市场开放时间： Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
交易量
$23,621结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ETParliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls from institutes including Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Infratest dimap, and INSA place the AfD at 17-18% for the September 20 Berlin state election, roughly double its 2023 share and consistent with the market's leading 17-20% range. The party's gains reflect broader national momentum from voter concerns over immigration, economic conditions, and dissatisfaction with established parties, reinforced by its strong performance in the recent Saxony-Anhalt contest. Berlin-specific polling shows a tight multi-party race with the Linke and CDU near or above 20%, while other mainstream parties rule out coalitions with the AfD. This dynamic supports the current trader consensus that the AfD will finish in the upper teens, with outcomes above 20% or below 14% viewed as less probable based on the latest survey data.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
交易量
$23,621结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ETRecent polls from institutes including Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Infratest dimap, and INSA place the AfD at 17-18% for the September 20 Berlin state election, roughly double its 2023 share and consistent with the market's leading 17-20% range. The party's gains reflect broader national momentum from voter concerns over immigration, economic conditions, and dissatisfaction with established parties, reinforced by its strong performance in the recent Saxony-Anhalt contest. Berlin-specific polling shows a tight multi-party race with the Linke and CDU near or above 20%, while other mainstream parties rule out coalitions with the AfD. This dynamic supports the current trader consensus that the AfD will finish in the upper teens, with outcomes above 20% or below 14% viewed as less probable based on the latest survey data.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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