Recent polling from INSA, Infratest dimap, and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen in early-to-mid September 2026 places Bündnis 90/Die Grünen at a steady 16 percent, down modestly from their 18.4 percent share in the 2023 repeat election. This positions the party behind Die Linke, CDU, and AfD in a fragmented four-way contest for first place ahead of the September 20 vote. The Greens’ lead candidate Werner Graf has signaled openness to certain coalitions while ruling out others, adding uncertainty about post-election bargaining that could affect final turnout among their urban base. Traders appear to weigh the narrow band of recent survey results against typical late-campaign volatility and margin-of-error considerations when assigning the highest probability to the 17-20 percent interval.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于17-20% 43%
14-17% 32%
低于14% 25%
20%+ 2.0%
$45,253 交易量
$45,253 交易量
2026-09-20
低于14%
25%
14-17%
32%
17-20%
43%
20%+
2%
17-20% 43%
14-17% 32%
低于14% 25%
20%+ 2.0%
$45,253 交易量
$45,253 交易量
2026-09-20
低于14%
$20,898 交易量
25%
14-17%
$14,815 交易量
32%
17-20%
$7,324 交易量
43%
20%+
$2,216 交易量
2%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling from INSA, Infratest dimap, and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen in early-to-mid September 2026 places Bündnis 90/Die Grünen at a steady 16 percent, down modestly from their 18.4 percent share in the 2023 repeat election. This positions the party behind Die Linke, CDU, and AfD in a fragmented four-way contest for first place ahead of the September 20 vote. The Greens’ lead candidate Werner Graf has signaled openness to certain coalitions while ruling out others, adding uncertainty about post-election bargaining that could affect final turnout among their urban base. Traders appear to weigh the narrow band of recent survey results against typical late-campaign volatility and margin-of-error considerations when assigning the highest probability to the 17-20 percent interval.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
市场开放时间： Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
交易量
$45,253结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ETParliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling from INSA, Infratest dimap, and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen in early-to-mid September 2026 places Bündnis 90/Die Grünen at a steady 16 percent, down modestly from their 18.4 percent share in the 2023 repeat election. This positions the party behind Die Linke, CDU, and AfD in a fragmented four-way contest for first place ahead of the September 20 vote. The Greens’ lead candidate Werner Graf has signaled openness to certain coalitions while ruling out others, adding uncertainty about post-election bargaining that could affect final turnout among their urban base. Traders appear to weigh the narrow band of recent survey results against typical late-campaign volatility and margin-of-error considerations when assigning the highest probability to the 17-20 percent interval.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
交易量
$45,253结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ETRecent polling from INSA, Infratest dimap, and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen in early-to-mid September 2026 places Bündnis 90/Die Grünen at a steady 16 percent, down modestly from their 18.4 percent share in the 2023 repeat election. This positions the party behind Die Linke, CDU, and AfD in a fragmented four-way contest for first place ahead of the September 20 vote. The Greens’ lead candidate Werner Graf has signaled openness to certain coalitions while ruling out others, adding uncertainty about post-election bargaining that could affect final turnout among their urban base. Traders appear to weigh the narrow band of recent survey results against typical late-campaign volatility and margin-of-error considerations when assigning the highest probability to the 17-20 percent interval.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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