Redistricting under California's Proposition 50 shifted CA-06 into Democratic-leaning territory with a D+5 partisan voting index, incorporating more Sacramento-area voters and prompting former Republican Kevin Kiley to run as an independent while still caucusing with the GOP. In the June top-two primary, Kiley and Democrat Richard Pan advanced to the November general election, where nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or likely Democratic. Recent polling shows Pan holding a modest edge, and trader pricing reflects the district's composition, historical voting patterns, and the absence of major late-breaking developments that could alter the trajectory before Election Day. A Republican victory would require unusually high independent turnout or a sharp national shift favoring the party.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$50,192 交易量
$50,192 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
95%
共和党
3%
$50,192 交易量
$50,192 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
$25,661 交易量
95%
共和党
$24,531 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under California's Proposition 50 shifted CA-06 into Democratic-leaning territory with a D+5 partisan voting index, incorporating more Sacramento-area voters and prompting former Republican Kevin Kiley to run as an independent while still caucusing with the GOP. In the June top-two primary, Kiley and Democrat Richard Pan advanced to the November general election, where nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or likely Democratic. Recent polling shows Pan holding a modest edge, and trader pricing reflects the district's composition, historical voting patterns, and the absence of major late-breaking developments that could alter the trajectory before Election Day. A Republican victory would require unusually high independent turnout or a sharp national shift favoring the party.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$50,192结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under California's Proposition 50 shifted CA-06 into Democratic-leaning territory with a D+5 partisan voting index, incorporating more Sacramento-area voters and prompting former Republican Kevin Kiley to run as an independent while still caucusing with the GOP. In the June top-two primary, Kiley and Democrat Richard Pan advanced to the November general election, where nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or likely Democratic. Recent polling shows Pan holding a modest edge, and trader pricing reflects the district's composition, historical voting patterns, and the absence of major late-breaking developments that could alter the trajectory before Election Day. A Republican victory would require unusually high independent turnout or a sharp national shift favoring the party.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$50,192结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETRedistricting under California's Proposition 50 shifted CA-06 into Democratic-leaning territory with a D+5 partisan voting index, incorporating more Sacramento-area voters and prompting former Republican Kevin Kiley to run as an independent while still caucusing with the GOP. In the June top-two primary, Kiley and Democrat Richard Pan advanced to the November general election, where nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or likely Democratic. Recent polling shows Pan holding a modest edge, and trader pricing reflects the district's composition, historical voting patterns, and the absence of major late-breaking developments that could alter the trajectory before Election Day. A Republican victory would require unusually high independent turnout or a sharp national shift favoring the party.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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