Incumbent Gil Cisneros secured a commanding 61% in the June 2026 top-two primary, advancing against Republican Eric Ching in California's 31st congressional district. The district's Democratic registration edge and 2024 presidential margin support continued party control, reinforced by Cisneros's substantial fundraising lead and all major forecasters rating the November general election as safe or solid Democratic. Trader consensus at 95% for Cisneros aligns with these structural advantages and historical incumbent success rates in similar seats. Potential shifts could stem from unforeseen national political realignments, candidate-specific developments, or unusually high turnout favoring the challenger in the final weeks before November 3.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$18,215 交易量
$18,215 交易量
2026-11-02
吉尔·西斯内罗斯（民主党）
95%
Eric Ching（共和党）
5%
$18,215 交易量
$18,215 交易量
2026-11-02
吉尔·西斯内罗斯（民主党）
$8,034 交易量
95%
Eric Ching（共和党）
$10,181 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Gil Cisneros secured a commanding 61% in the June 2026 top-two primary, advancing against Republican Eric Ching in California's 31st congressional district. The district's Democratic registration edge and 2024 presidential margin support continued party control, reinforced by Cisneros's substantial fundraising lead and all major forecasters rating the November general election as safe or solid Democratic. Trader consensus at 95% for Cisneros aligns with these structural advantages and historical incumbent success rates in similar seats. Potential shifts could stem from unforeseen national political realignments, candidate-specific developments, or unusually high turnout favoring the challenger in the final weeks before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
交易量
$18,215结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Gil Cisneros secured a commanding 61% in the June 2026 top-two primary, advancing against Republican Eric Ching in California's 31st congressional district. The district's Democratic registration edge and 2024 presidential margin support continued party control, reinforced by Cisneros's substantial fundraising lead and all major forecasters rating the November general election as safe or solid Democratic. Trader consensus at 95% for Cisneros aligns with these structural advantages and historical incumbent success rates in similar seats. Potential shifts could stem from unforeseen national political realignments, candidate-specific developments, or unusually high turnout favoring the challenger in the final weeks before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$18,215结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETIncumbent Gil Cisneros secured a commanding 61% in the June 2026 top-two primary, advancing against Republican Eric Ching in California's 31st congressional district. The district's Democratic registration edge and 2024 presidential margin support continued party control, reinforced by Cisneros's substantial fundraising lead and all major forecasters rating the November general election as safe or solid Democratic. Trader consensus at 95% for Cisneros aligns with these structural advantages and historical incumbent success rates in similar seats. Potential shifts could stem from unforeseen national political realignments, candidate-specific developments, or unusually high turnout favoring the challenger in the final weeks before November 3.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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