Texas Senate race dynamics keep trader consensus tightly balanced between Democratic nominee James Talarico and Republican nominee Ken Paxton, with each at 50.5% implied probability. Paxton’s May primary victory over incumbent John Cornyn, backed by a late Trump endorsement, unified much of the GOP base but left him exposed on prior legal and ethical issues that Democrats have highlighted. Talarico’s record fundraising exceeding $68 million has funded aggressive advertising and outreach, yielding strong independent support and gains among Hispanic voters in recent polls. Forecasters rate the contest a toss-up or lean Republican ahead of the November general election, with upcoming debates, Republican convention events in Dallas, and additional outside spending likely to test whether either candidate can break the deadlock before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$1,042,042 交易量
$1,042,042 交易量
2026-11-02
詹姆斯·塔拉里科（民主党）
51%
肯·帕克斯顿（共和党）
51%
$1,042,042 交易量
$1,042,042 交易量
2026-11-02
詹姆斯·塔拉里科（民主党）
$477,784 交易量
51%
肯·帕克斯顿（共和党）
$564,258 交易量
51%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Texas Senate race dynamics keep trader consensus tightly balanced between Democratic nominee James Talarico and Republican nominee Ken Paxton, with each at 50.5% implied probability. Paxton’s May primary victory over incumbent John Cornyn, backed by a late Trump endorsement, unified much of the GOP base but left him exposed on prior legal and ethical issues that Democrats have highlighted. Talarico’s record fundraising exceeding $68 million has funded aggressive advertising and outreach, yielding strong independent support and gains among Hispanic voters in recent polls. Forecasters rate the contest a toss-up or lean Republican ahead of the November general election, with upcoming debates, Republican convention events in Dallas, and additional outside spending likely to test whether either candidate can break the deadlock before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ET
交易量
$1,042,042结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Texas Senate race dynamics keep trader consensus tightly balanced between Democratic nominee James Talarico and Republican nominee Ken Paxton, with each at 50.5% implied probability. Paxton’s May primary victory over incumbent John Cornyn, backed by a late Trump endorsement, unified much of the GOP base but left him exposed on prior legal and ethical issues that Democrats have highlighted. Talarico’s record fundraising exceeding $68 million has funded aggressive advertising and outreach, yielding strong independent support and gains among Hispanic voters in recent polls. Forecasters rate the contest a toss-up or lean Republican ahead of the November general election, with upcoming debates, Republican convention events in Dallas, and additional outside spending likely to test whether either candidate can break the deadlock before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$1,042,042结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETTexas Senate race dynamics keep trader consensus tightly balanced between Democratic nominee James Talarico and Republican nominee Ken Paxton, with each at 50.5% implied probability. Paxton’s May primary victory over incumbent John Cornyn, backed by a late Trump endorsement, unified much of the GOP base but left him exposed on prior legal and ethical issues that Democrats have highlighted. Talarico’s record fundraising exceeding $68 million has funded aggressive advertising and outreach, yielding strong independent support and gains among Hispanic voters in recent polls. Forecasters rate the contest a toss-up or lean Republican ahead of the November general election, with upcoming debates, Republican convention events in Dallas, and additional outside spending likely to test whether either candidate can break the deadlock before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题