Greater Tunb remains under de facto Iranian administration as part of Hormozgan province alongside a military garrison and IRGC infrastructure used to monitor and influence traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. US precision strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted coastal defenses and missile facilities on the island, further degrading Iranian capabilities without altering territorial control. The UAE continues to assert sovereignty over Greater Tunb and the other two disputed islands, supported by GCC statements urging resolution via negotiation or the International Court of Justice, while Iran has reinforced its presence through missile deployments and official national day observances. Recent escalations, including UAE interception of an Iranian drone and suspension of bilateral trade in late August, have heightened diplomatic friction but produced no shift in on-the-ground authority. Trader sentiment reflects the durability of Iran’s 1971-established position absent a major diplomatic breakthrough or sustained military campaign capable of forcing withdrawal.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$54,868 交易量
2026-08-31
8月31日
1%
9月30日
6%
$54,868 交易量
8月31日
$32,153 交易量
1%
9月30日
$207 交易量
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Greater Tunb remains under de facto Iranian administration as part of Hormozgan province alongside a military garrison and IRGC infrastructure used to monitor and influence traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. US precision strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted coastal defenses and missile facilities on the island, further degrading Iranian capabilities without altering territorial control. The UAE continues to assert sovereignty over Greater Tunb and the other two disputed islands, supported by GCC statements urging resolution via negotiation or the International Court of Justice, while Iran has reinforced its presence through missile deployments and official national day observances. Recent escalations, including UAE interception of an Iranian drone and suspension of bilateral trade in late August, have heightened diplomatic friction but produced no shift in on-the-ground authority. Trader sentiment reflects the durability of Iran’s 1971-established position absent a major diplomatic breakthrough or sustained military campaign capable of forcing withdrawal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ET
交易量
$54,868结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Greater Tunb remains under de facto Iranian administration as part of Hormozgan province alongside a military garrison and IRGC infrastructure used to monitor and influence traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. US precision strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted coastal defenses and missile facilities on the island, further degrading Iranian capabilities without altering territorial control. The UAE continues to assert sovereignty over Greater Tunb and the other two disputed islands, supported by GCC statements urging resolution via negotiation or the International Court of Justice, while Iran has reinforced its presence through missile deployments and official national day observances. Recent escalations, including UAE interception of an Iranian drone and suspension of bilateral trade in late August, have heightened diplomatic friction but produced no shift in on-the-ground authority. Trader sentiment reflects the durability of Iran’s 1971-established position absent a major diplomatic breakthrough or sustained military campaign capable of forcing withdrawal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$54,868结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ETGreater Tunb remains under de facto Iranian administration as part of Hormozgan province alongside a military garrison and IRGC infrastructure used to monitor and influence traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. US precision strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted coastal defenses and missile facilities on the island, further degrading Iranian capabilities without altering territorial control. The UAE continues to assert sovereignty over Greater Tunb and the other two disputed islands, supported by GCC statements urging resolution via negotiation or the International Court of Justice, while Iran has reinforced its presence through missile deployments and official national day observances. Recent escalations, including UAE interception of an Iranian drone and suspension of bilateral trade in late August, have heightened diplomatic friction but produced no shift in on-the-ground authority. Trader sentiment reflects the durability of Iran’s 1971-established position absent a major diplomatic breakthrough or sustained military campaign capable of forcing withdrawal.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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