The closely matched trader prices around 4M–4.5M total votes reflect a low-competition U.S. Senate contest in a solidly Democratic state, where Democratic nominee Juliana Stratton faces Republican Don Tracy in a race rated Safe or Solid D by major forecasters. Primary turnout data from March 2026 showed a roughly 50% surge in Democratic participation compared with 2022, driven by competitive nominations and national political engagement, while Republican primary numbers lagged. Concurrent statewide races, including the governor’s contest, along with early voting access and registration deadlines approaching in October, shape expectations for general election participation. Historical midterm patterns and limited Republican mobilization in non-battleground conditions keep the outcome range narrow, with any late shifts in voter enthusiasm or weather on Election Day November 3 potentially separating the leading bins.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于4.25M-4.5M 40%
4M-4.25M 35%
4.5M-4.75M 14%
3.75M-4M 11%
<3.25M
3%
3.25M-3.5M
1%
3.5M-3.75M
4%
3.75M-4M
11%
4M-4.25M
35%
4.25M-4.5M
40%
4.5M-4.75M
14%
4.75M+
1%
4.25M-4.5M 40%
4M-4.25M 35%
4.5M-4.75M 14%
3.75M-4M 11%
<3.25M
3%
3.25M-3.5M
1%
3.5M-3.75M
4%
3.75M-4M
11%
4M-4.25M
35%
4.25M-4.5M
40%
4.5M-4.75M
14%
4.75M+
1%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Aug 18, 2026, 10:19 AM ET
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The closely matched trader prices around 4M–4.5M total votes reflect a low-competition U.S. Senate contest in a solidly Democratic state, where Democratic nominee Juliana Stratton faces Republican Don Tracy in a race rated Safe or Solid D by major forecasters. Primary turnout data from March 2026 showed a roughly 50% surge in Democratic participation compared with 2022, driven by competitive nominations and national political engagement, while Republican primary numbers lagged. Concurrent statewide races, including the governor’s contest, along with early voting access and registration deadlines approaching in October, shape expectations for general election participation. Historical midterm patterns and limited Republican mobilization in non-battleground conditions keep the outcome range narrow, with any late shifts in voter enthusiasm or weather on Election Day November 3 potentially separating the leading bins.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于相关
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Florida be between 7,750,000 and 8,000,000?
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be between 1,400,000 and 1,450,000?
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Massachusetts be between 2,800,000 and 2,950,000?
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警惕外部链接哦。
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