US federal prosecutors are pursuing narco-terrorism and cocaine-trafficking charges against ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro following his January 2026 capture in Caracas, with a June 2027 trial date set in Manhattan federal court. Defense motions filed in early September 2026 seek dismissal on sovereign immunity grounds, arguing Maduro retains head-of-state protections despite US non-recognition of his presidency, with oral arguments scheduled for November 17. These filings, alongside Cilia Flores’s recent request for home confinement citing health concerns, underscore procedural hurdles and the possibility of case dismissal or acquittal that align with the leading “no prison time” market outcome. Conviction on the charges could expose Maduro to decades or life in prison, supporting the sizable probability attached to longer sentences, though historical precedents on foreign-leader immunity claims and the extended pretrial timeline introduce substantial uncertainty reflected in current trader positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于马杜罗监狱时间？
马杜罗监狱时间？
无监禁 49%
60年以上 39%
20-40 7.9%
少于20年 3.5%
$729,251 交易量
$729,251 交易量
2027-12-30
无监禁
49%
少于20年
4%
20-40
8%
40–60
2%
60年以上
39%
无监禁 49%
60年以上 39%
20-40 7.9%
少于20年 3.5%
$729,251 交易量
$729,251 交易量
2027-12-30
无监禁
$442,841 交易量
49%
少于20年
$109,760 交易量
4%
20-40
$59,293 交易量
8%
40–60
$26,923 交易量
2%
60年以上
$90,435 交易量
39%
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US federal prosecutors are pursuing narco-terrorism and cocaine-trafficking charges against ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro following his January 2026 capture in Caracas, with a June 2027 trial date set in Manhattan federal court. Defense motions filed in early September 2026 seek dismissal on sovereign immunity grounds, arguing Maduro retains head-of-state protections despite US non-recognition of his presidency, with oral arguments scheduled for November 17. These filings, alongside Cilia Flores’s recent request for home confinement citing health concerns, underscore procedural hurdles and the possibility of case dismissal or acquittal that align with the leading “no prison time” market outcome. Conviction on the charges could expose Maduro to decades or life in prison, supporting the sizable probability attached to longer sentences, though historical precedents on foreign-leader immunity claims and the extended pretrial timeline introduce substantial uncertainty reflected in current trader positioning.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ET
交易量
$729,251结束日期
2027-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETVenezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US federal prosecutors are pursuing narco-terrorism and cocaine-trafficking charges against ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro following his January 2026 capture in Caracas, with a June 2027 trial date set in Manhattan federal court. Defense motions filed in early September 2026 seek dismissal on sovereign immunity grounds, arguing Maduro retains head-of-state protections despite US non-recognition of his presidency, with oral arguments scheduled for November 17. These filings, alongside Cilia Flores’s recent request for home confinement citing health concerns, underscore procedural hurdles and the possibility of case dismissal or acquittal that align with the leading “no prison time” market outcome. Conviction on the charges could expose Maduro to decades or life in prison, supporting the sizable probability attached to longer sentences, though historical precedents on foreign-leader immunity claims and the extended pretrial timeline introduce substantial uncertainty reflected in current trader positioning.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$729,251结束日期
2027-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETUS federal prosecutors are pursuing narco-terrorism and cocaine-trafficking charges against ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro following his January 2026 capture in Caracas, with a June 2027 trial date set in Manhattan federal court. Defense motions filed in early September 2026 seek dismissal on sovereign immunity grounds, arguing Maduro retains head-of-state protections despite US non-recognition of his presidency, with oral arguments scheduled for November 17. These filings, alongside Cilia Flores’s recent request for home confinement citing health concerns, underscore procedural hurdles and the possibility of case dismissal or acquittal that align with the leading “no prison time” market outcome. Conviction on the charges could expose Maduro to decades or life in prison, supporting the sizable probability attached to longer sentences, though historical precedents on foreign-leader immunity claims and the extended pretrial timeline introduce substantial uncertainty reflected in current trader positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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