Skip to main content

如需在美国交易，请访问 polymarket.us

icon for 美联储9月份的决定？
政治·Fomc

美联储9月份的决定？

icon for 美联储9月份的决定？
政治·Fomc

美联储9月份的决定？

9月 16

10月 28

12月 9

1月 27, 2027

9月 16

10月 28

12月 9

1月 27, 2027

加息25个基点 78%

不变 22%

上调50个基点以上 <1%

降息25个基点 <1%

Polymarket

$142,818,580 交易量

加息25个基点 78%

不变 22%

上调50个基点以上 <1%

降息25个基点 <1%

Polymarket

$142,818,580 交易量

下调50个基点以上

$16,094,444 交易量

<1%

降息25个基点

$40,252,832 交易量

<1%

不变

$37,424,076 交易量

22%

加息25个基点

$29,203,698 交易量

78%

上调50个基点以上

$19,843,529 交易量

1%

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation readings, including August core CPI rising 0.3% month-over-month and headline CPI at 3.4%, alongside a robust August jobs report showing 162,000 nonfarm payroll gains and steady 4.1% unemployment, have shifted trader expectations toward tighter policy. Elevated energy prices tied to Middle East supply disruptions have kept price pressures persistent above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and the FOMC’s updated projections have reinforced the case for action ahead of the September 15-16 meeting. These factors have driven the 77.5% consensus on a 25 basis point increase, while the 21.5% odds on no change reflect ongoing debate over whether the data warrant immediate adjustment versus a continued hold.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$142,818,580
结束日期
2026-09-16
市场开放时间
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET

结算方

0x69c47De9D...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation readings, including August core CPI rising 0.3% month-over-month and headline CPI at 3.4%, alongside a robust August jobs report showing 162,000 nonfarm payroll gains and steady 4.1% unemployment, have shifted trader expectations toward tighter policy. Elevated energy prices tied to Middle East supply disruptions have kept price pressures persistent above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and the FOMC’s updated projections have reinforced the case for action ahead of the September 15-16 meeting. These factors have driven the 77.5% consensus on a 25 basis point increase, while the 21.5% odds on no change reflect ongoing debate over whether the data warrant immediate adjustment versus a continued hold.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$142,818,580
结束日期
2026-09-16
市场开放时间
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET

结算方

0x69c47De9D...

相关

icon for 2026年10月会议后美联储利率将不会发生变化吗？

2026年10月会议后美联储利率将不会发生变化吗？

62%
是
icon for Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

56%
icon for 2026年末，联邦基金利率目标区间上限会是4.0%吗？

2026年末，联邦基金利率目标区间上限会是4.0%吗？

40%
是

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"美联储9月份的决定？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 5 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"加息25个基点"，概率为 78%，其次是"不变"，概率为 22%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 78¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 78%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"美联储9月份的决定？"已产生 $142.8 million 的总交易量（自May 13, 2026市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"美联储9月份的决定？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 5 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"美联储9月份的决定？"的当前领先者是"加息25个基点"，概率为 78%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 78%。紧随其后的结果是"不变"，概率为 22%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"美联储9月份的决定？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。