Recent economic data and persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target have created tight competition between Pause–Pause–Pause and Other outcomes for the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC decisions. Solid GDP growth, a stable labor market with August nonfarm payrolls at 162,000 and unemployment near 4.1%, and energy-driven price pressures from Middle East supply shocks have kept the federal funds rate range at 3.50–3.75% through July. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s removal of forward guidance and hawkish signals, including openness to tightening if disinflation stalls, have elevated the chance of a September hike. Pending August CPI and PCE releases will likely determine whether trader consensus shifts toward a rate increase or sustained pauses amid balanced but uncertain risks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Other 54%
Pause–Pause–Pause 47%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$841,250 交易量
$841,250 交易量
2026-09-15
Pause–Pause–Pause
47%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
54%
Other 54%
Pause–Pause–Pause 47%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$841,250 交易量
$841,250 交易量
2026-09-15
Pause–Pause–Pause
$325,953 交易量
47%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$99,971 交易量
1%
Other
$359,451 交易量
54%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent economic data and persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target have created tight competition between Pause–Pause–Pause and Other outcomes for the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC decisions. Solid GDP growth, a stable labor market with August nonfarm payrolls at 162,000 and unemployment near 4.1%, and energy-driven price pressures from Middle East supply shocks have kept the federal funds rate range at 3.50–3.75% through July. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s removal of forward guidance and hawkish signals, including openness to tightening if disinflation stalls, have elevated the chance of a September hike. Pending August CPI and PCE releases will likely determine whether trader consensus shifts toward a rate increase or sustained pauses amid balanced but uncertain risks.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
交易量
$841,250结束日期
2026-09-16市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent economic data and persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target have created tight competition between Pause–Pause–Pause and Other outcomes for the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC decisions. Solid GDP growth, a stable labor market with August nonfarm payrolls at 162,000 and unemployment near 4.1%, and energy-driven price pressures from Middle East supply shocks have kept the federal funds rate range at 3.50–3.75% through July. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s removal of forward guidance and hawkish signals, including openness to tightening if disinflation stalls, have elevated the chance of a September hike. Pending August CPI and PCE releases will likely determine whether trader consensus shifts toward a rate increase or sustained pauses amid balanced but uncertain risks.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$841,250结束日期
2026-09-16市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETRecent economic data and persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target have created tight competition between Pause–Pause–Pause and Other outcomes for the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC decisions. Solid GDP growth, a stable labor market with August nonfarm payrolls at 162,000 and unemployment near 4.1%, and energy-driven price pressures from Middle East supply shocks have kept the federal funds rate range at 3.50–3.75% through July. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s removal of forward guidance and hawkish signals, including openness to tightening if disinflation stalls, have elevated the chance of a September hike. Pending August CPI and PCE releases will likely determine whether trader consensus shifts toward a rate increase or sustained pauses amid balanced but uncertain risks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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