Recent strong August jobs data showing 162,000 additions and steady 4.1% unemployment, alongside persistent inflation above the 2% target, have driven the closely contested Polymarket odds for Federal Reserve decisions at the September, October/November, and December 2026 meetings. The current 3.50–3.75% federal funds rate range reflects a hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh, with FOMC projections indicating at least one hike by year-end and market-implied odds split among all-pause, early-hike, and mixed paths. Elevated Treasury yields and supply-side pressures from energy markets underscore uncertainty, as traders weigh resilient growth against risks of overheating. Upcoming September 15–16 FOMC meeting and fresh inflation releases represent key catalysts that could clarify the rate trajectory.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于连续三次按兵不动 26%
加息–暂停–暂停 19%
暂停–暂停–加息 13%
加息-加息-暂停 13%
$11,713 交易量
$11,713 交易量
2026-12-09
加息-暂停-加息
10%
加息–暂停–暂停
19%
连加三次息
6%
加息-加息-暂停
13%
暂停–暂停–加息
13%
连续三次按兵不动
26%
暂停–加息–加息
5%
暂停–加息–暂停
8%
其他
7%
连续三次按兵不动 26%
加息–暂停–暂停 19%
暂停–暂停–加息 13%
加息-加息-暂停 13%
$11,713 交易量
$11,713 交易量
2026-12-09
加息-暂停-加息
$314 交易量
10%
加息–暂停–暂停
$499 交易量
19%
连加三次息
$216 交易量
6%
加息-加息-暂停
$429 交易量
13%
暂停–暂停–加息
$253 交易量
13%
连续三次按兵不动
$9,180 交易量
26%
暂停–加息–加息
$237 交易量
5%
暂停–加息–暂停
$336 交易量
8%
其他
$249 交易量
7%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent strong August jobs data showing 162,000 additions and steady 4.1% unemployment, alongside persistent inflation above the 2% target, have driven the closely contested Polymarket odds for Federal Reserve decisions at the September, October/November, and December 2026 meetings. The current 3.50–3.75% federal funds rate range reflects a hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh, with FOMC projections indicating at least one hike by year-end and market-implied odds split among all-pause, early-hike, and mixed paths. Elevated Treasury yields and supply-side pressures from energy markets underscore uncertainty, as traders weigh resilient growth against risks of overheating. Upcoming September 15–16 FOMC meeting and fresh inflation releases represent key catalysts that could clarify the rate trajectory.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
交易量
$11,713结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent strong August jobs data showing 162,000 additions and steady 4.1% unemployment, alongside persistent inflation above the 2% target, have driven the closely contested Polymarket odds for Federal Reserve decisions at the September, October/November, and December 2026 meetings. The current 3.50–3.75% federal funds rate range reflects a hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh, with FOMC projections indicating at least one hike by year-end and market-implied odds split among all-pause, early-hike, and mixed paths. Elevated Treasury yields and supply-side pressures from energy markets underscore uncertainty, as traders weigh resilient growth against risks of overheating. Upcoming September 15–16 FOMC meeting and fresh inflation releases represent key catalysts that could clarify the rate trajectory.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$11,713结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETRecent strong August jobs data showing 162,000 additions and steady 4.1% unemployment, alongside persistent inflation above the 2% target, have driven the closely contested Polymarket odds for Federal Reserve decisions at the September, October/November, and December 2026 meetings. The current 3.50–3.75% federal funds rate range reflects a hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh, with FOMC projections indicating at least one hike by year-end and market-implied odds split among all-pause, early-hike, and mixed paths. Elevated Treasury yields and supply-side pressures from energy markets underscore uncertainty, as traders weigh resilient growth against risks of overheating. Upcoming September 15–16 FOMC meeting and fresh inflation releases represent key catalysts that could clarify the rate trajectory.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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