Recent strong U.S. employment data, including 162,000 August job gains that exceeded expectations, combined with persistent inflation above the 2% target—driven by energy supply disruptions—have elevated market-implied odds of a 25 basis point federal funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. The policy rate remains anchored at 3.50%-3.75%, with the June Summary of Economic Projections showing a median end-2026 midpoint of 3.8% after nine participants projected at least one increase. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish communications have removed prior easing bias language, while upcoming CPI and PPI releases represent key swing factors ahead of the next decision. Trader consensus on Polymarket and futures reflects this balance, pricing roughly even odds between a hold and a quarter-point tightening amid resilient labor conditions and geopolitical pressures.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$2,846,865 交易量
2026-12-08
9月会议
50%
十月会议
62%
$2,846,865 交易量
9月会议
$1,267,356 交易量
50%
十月会议
$619,509 交易量
62%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent strong U.S. employment data, including 162,000 August job gains that exceeded expectations, combined with persistent inflation above the 2% target—driven by energy supply disruptions—have elevated market-implied odds of a 25 basis point federal funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. The policy rate remains anchored at 3.50%-3.75%, with the June Summary of Economic Projections showing a median end-2026 midpoint of 3.8% after nine participants projected at least one increase. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish communications have removed prior easing bias language, while upcoming CPI and PPI releases represent key swing factors ahead of the next decision. Trader consensus on Polymarket and futures reflects this balance, pricing roughly even odds between a hold and a quarter-point tightening amid resilient labor conditions and geopolitical pressures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
交易量
$2,846,865结束日期
2026-10-29市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent strong U.S. employment data, including 162,000 August job gains that exceeded expectations, combined with persistent inflation above the 2% target—driven by energy supply disruptions—have elevated market-implied odds of a 25 basis point federal funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. The policy rate remains anchored at 3.50%-3.75%, with the June Summary of Economic Projections showing a median end-2026 midpoint of 3.8% after nine participants projected at least one increase. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish communications have removed prior easing bias language, while upcoming CPI and PPI releases represent key swing factors ahead of the next decision. Trader consensus on Polymarket and futures reflects this balance, pricing roughly even odds between a hold and a quarter-point tightening amid resilient labor conditions and geopolitical pressures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$2,846,865结束日期
2026-10-29市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETRecent strong U.S. employment data, including 162,000 August job gains that exceeded expectations, combined with persistent inflation above the 2% target—driven by energy supply disruptions—have elevated market-implied odds of a 25 basis point federal funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. The policy rate remains anchored at 3.50%-3.75%, with the June Summary of Economic Projections showing a median end-2026 midpoint of 3.8% after nine participants projected at least one increase. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish communications have removed prior easing bias language, while upcoming CPI and PPI releases represent key swing factors ahead of the next decision. Trader consensus on Polymarket and futures reflects this balance, pricing roughly even odds between a hold and a quarter-point tightening amid resilient labor conditions and geopolitical pressures.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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