Meta’s Watermelon large language model remains in training as of early September 2026, driving trader focus on an October public release window after internal claims of GPT-5.5 parity on unspecified benchmarks using roughly 10x the compute of the prior Muse Spark (Avocado) model. Alexandr Wang highlighted these gains in July, alongside plans for coding and agentic upgrades, while Meta’s $125–145 billion infrastructure spend supports the scale-up. August reporting tied the model to a consumer Hatch agent platform launch, but no independent verification or official timeline has emerged amid rapid frontier iteration from OpenAI and Anthropic. Key near-term catalysts include any October announcement, benchmark disclosures, or slippage signals that could shift the 59% October and 79% November market-implied odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
2026-09-30
9 月 30 日
5%
10 月 31 日
59%
11月30日
86%
$4,813 交易量
9 月 30 日
$3,344 交易量
5%
10 月 31 日
$1,046 交易量
59%
11月30日
$423 交易量
86%
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s Watermelon large language model remains in training as of early September 2026, driving trader focus on an October public release window after internal claims of GPT-5.5 parity on unspecified benchmarks using roughly 10x the compute of the prior Muse Spark (Avocado) model. Alexandr Wang highlighted these gains in July, alongside plans for coding and agentic upgrades, while Meta’s $125–145 billion infrastructure spend supports the scale-up. August reporting tied the model to a consumer Hatch agent platform launch, but no independent verification or official timeline has emerged amid rapid frontier iteration from OpenAI and Anthropic. Key near-term catalysts include any October announcement, benchmark disclosures, or slippage signals that could shift the 59% October and 79% November market-implied odds.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
交易量
$4,813结束日期
2026-11-30市场开放时间
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETOn September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s Watermelon large language model remains in training as of early September 2026, driving trader focus on an October public release window after internal claims of GPT-5.5 parity on unspecified benchmarks using roughly 10x the compute of the prior Muse Spark (Avocado) model. Alexandr Wang highlighted these gains in July, alongside plans for coding and agentic upgrades, while Meta’s $125–145 billion infrastructure spend supports the scale-up. August reporting tied the model to a consumer Hatch agent platform launch, but no independent verification or official timeline has emerged amid rapid frontier iteration from OpenAI and Anthropic. Key near-term catalysts include any October announcement, benchmark disclosures, or slippage signals that could shift the 59% October and 79% November market-implied odds.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$4,813结束日期
2026-11-30市场开放时间
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETMeta’s Watermelon large language model remains in training as of early September 2026, driving trader focus on an October public release window after internal claims of GPT-5.5 parity on unspecified benchmarks using roughly 10x the compute of the prior Muse Spark (Avocado) model. Alexandr Wang highlighted these gains in July, alongside plans for coding and agentic upgrades, while Meta’s $125–145 billion infrastructure spend supports the scale-up. August reporting tied the model to a consumer Hatch agent platform launch, but no independent verification or official timeline has emerged amid rapid frontier iteration from OpenAI and Anthropic. Key near-term catalysts include any October announcement, benchmark disclosures, or slippage signals that could shift the 59% October and 79% November market-implied odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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