Trader consensus favoring the "No" outcome at 77% for a natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the lack of events meeting strict resolution thresholds through late August, despite routine seasonal hazards. Official data from NOAA, USGS, and equivalent agencies document typical severe convective storms, regional flooding, and heat episodes, but economic losses and fatalities remain below 21st-century H1 averages, with no unprecedented extremes like record-breaking GLOFs or magnitude-8+ quakes. Recent El Niño strengthening has prompted drought alerts in Central America without triggering widespread catastrophe, while the Nepal-Tibet flash flood and U.S. storms align with climatological norms rather than outliers. Upcoming peak hurricane activity and seismic bulletins will supply fresh model runs for traders evaluating remaining windows.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
23% 概率
$243,271 交易量
$243,271 交易量
2026-12-31
是
23% 概率
$243,271 交易量
$243,271 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favoring the "No" outcome at 77% for a natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the lack of events meeting strict resolution thresholds through late August, despite routine seasonal hazards. Official data from NOAA, USGS, and equivalent agencies document typical severe convective storms, regional flooding, and heat episodes, but economic losses and fatalities remain below 21st-century H1 averages, with no unprecedented extremes like record-breaking GLOFs or magnitude-8+ quakes. Recent El Niño strengthening has prompted drought alerts in Central America without triggering widespread catastrophe, while the Nepal-Tibet flash flood and U.S. storms align with climatological norms rather than outliers. Upcoming peak hurricane activity and seismic bulletins will supply fresh model runs for traders evaluating remaining windows.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
市场开放时间： Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
交易量
$243,271结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favoring the "No" outcome at 77% for a natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the lack of events meeting strict resolution thresholds through late August, despite routine seasonal hazards. Official data from NOAA, USGS, and equivalent agencies document typical severe convective storms, regional flooding, and heat episodes, but economic losses and fatalities remain below 21st-century H1 averages, with no unprecedented extremes like record-breaking GLOFs or magnitude-8+ quakes. Recent El Niño strengthening has prompted drought alerts in Central America without triggering widespread catastrophe, while the Nepal-Tibet flash flood and U.S. storms align with climatological norms rather than outliers. Upcoming peak hurricane activity and seismic bulletins will supply fresh model runs for traders evaluating remaining windows.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
交易量
$243,271结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETTrader consensus favoring the "No" outcome at 77% for a natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the lack of events meeting strict resolution thresholds through late August, despite routine seasonal hazards. Official data from NOAA, USGS, and equivalent agencies document typical severe convective storms, regional flooding, and heat episodes, but economic losses and fatalities remain below 21st-century H1 averages, with no unprecedented extremes like record-breaking GLOFs or magnitude-8+ quakes. Recent El Niño strengthening has prompted drought alerts in Central America without triggering widespread catastrophe, while the Nepal-Tibet flash flood and U.S. storms align with climatological norms rather than outliers. Upcoming peak hurricane activity and seismic bulletins will supply fresh model runs for traders evaluating remaining windows.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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