The high market-implied odds against a new pandemic before 2028 stem primarily from the absence of any pathogen demonstrating sustained human-to-human transmission capable of rapid global spread, despite ongoing regional outbreaks. Official WHO and CDC surveillance through September 2026 shows the Bundibugyo Ebola event in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda remains geographically limited, with international response plans emphasizing containment rather than uncontrolled expansion. Similar patterns hold for monitored threats such as avian influenza and mpox variants, where zoonotic spillovers lack the efficient respiratory or contact transmission required for pandemic emergence. Enhanced post-COVID surveillance, diagnostic networks, and pathogen-family R&D roadmaps further lower near-term probabilities by enabling earlier detection and intervention, consistent with historical intervals between major events.