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icon for OR-02众议院选举获胜者

OR-02众议院选举获胜者

icon for OR-02众议院选举获胜者

OR-02众议院选举获胜者

Polymarket
最新
Polymarket
最新

克里夫·本茨(共和党)

$4,217 交易量

95%

克里斯·贝克(民主党)

$4,650 交易量

6%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Cliff Bentz maintains a commanding lead in the Oregon 2nd congressional district race due to the district’s strong Republican tilt, reflected in his 2024 reelection margin and consistent solid or safe ratings from forecasters. Bentz secured nearly 80 percent in the May 2026 Republican primary and holds a substantial fundraising edge with over $1 million in cash on hand, enabling robust campaign infrastructure across the expansive rural district. Challenger Chris Beck, who won the Democratic primary with a plurality, has focused recent efforts on town halls in eastern Oregon communities to build visibility, yet faces structural barriers including lower name recognition and limited resources. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national partisan shift could still influence the November general election outcome.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$8,867
结束日期
2026-11-04
市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Cliff Bentz maintains a commanding lead in the Oregon 2nd congressional district race due to the district’s strong Republican tilt, reflected in his 2024 reelection margin and consistent solid or safe ratings from forecasters. Bentz secured nearly 80 percent in the May 2026 Republican primary and holds a substantial fundraising edge with over $1 million in cash on hand, enabling robust campaign infrastructure across the expansive rural district. Challenger Chris Beck, who won the Democratic primary with a plurality, has focused recent efforts on town halls in eastern Oregon communities to build visibility, yet faces structural barriers including lower name recognition and limited resources. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national partisan shift could still influence the November general election outcome.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$8,867
结束日期
2026-11-04
市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET

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常见问题

"OR-02众议院选举获胜者"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"克里夫·本茨(共和党)",概率为 95%,其次是"克里斯·贝克(民主党)",概率为 6%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 95¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 95%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"OR-02众议院选举获胜者"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场,于Jan 28, 2026上线。作为一个新市场,这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签,以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"OR-02众议院选举获胜者"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"OR-02众议院选举获胜者"的当前领先者是"克里夫·本茨(共和党)",概率为 95%,意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 95%。紧随其后的结果是"克里斯·贝克(民主党)",概率为 6%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"OR-02众议院选举获胜者"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。