Recent polls show Eduardo Gomes (PL) holding a clear lead for one Senate seat in Tocantins, while the second position remains contested among Alexandre Guimarães (MDB), Gaguim (União Brasil), and Vanderlei Luxemburgo (Podemos), with their support clustered in the low-to-mid teens amid widespread indecision. This fragmentation, combined with voters selecting two candidates and roughly one-quarter to one-third still undecided or open to switching just weeks before the October 4 vote, sustains tight implied probabilities for second place. Further separation could emerge from late campaign events, coalition alignments, or turnout patterns among key regional blocs before election day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于加古因 40.5%
亚历山大·吉马良斯 39%
爱德华多·戈麦斯 16.7%
范德雷·卢森堡 4.4%
$35,831 交易量
$35,831 交易量
2026-10-04
加古因
41%
亚历山大·吉马良斯
39%
爱德华多·戈麦斯
17%
范德雷·卢森堡
4%
赫利奥·罗德里格斯·博索纳罗
3%
罗纳尔多·迪马斯
1%
埃利·博尔赫斯
1%
奥斯瓦尼·卢兹
1%
保罗·莫朗
<1%
使徒弗拉维奥·布拉加
<1%
法比奥·里贝罗
<1%
尼尔顿·桑托斯
<1%
奥斯瓦尔多教授
<1%
加古因 40.5%
亚历山大·吉马良斯 39%
爱德华多·戈麦斯 16.7%
范德雷·卢森堡 4.4%
$35,831 交易量
$35,831 交易量
2026-10-04
加古因
$9,007 交易量
41%
亚历山大·吉马良斯
$16,768 交易量
39%
爱德华多·戈麦斯
$1,499 交易量
17%
范德雷·卢森堡
$563 交易量
4%
赫利奥·罗德里格斯·博索纳罗
$420 交易量
3%
罗纳尔多·迪马斯
$414 交易量
1%
埃利·博尔赫斯
$556 交易量
1%
奥斯瓦尼·卢兹
$494 交易量
1%
保罗·莫朗
$4,518 交易量
<1%
使徒弗拉维奥·布拉加
$414 交易量
<1%
法比奥·里贝罗
$382 交易量
<1%
尼尔顿·桑托斯
$429 交易量
<1%
奥斯瓦尔多教授
$366 交易量
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls show Eduardo Gomes (PL) holding a clear lead for one Senate seat in Tocantins, while the second position remains contested among Alexandre Guimarães (MDB), Gaguim (União Brasil), and Vanderlei Luxemburgo (Podemos), with their support clustered in the low-to-mid teens amid widespread indecision. This fragmentation, combined with voters selecting two candidates and roughly one-quarter to one-third still undecided or open to switching just weeks before the October 4 vote, sustains tight implied probabilities for second place. Further separation could emerge from late campaign events, coalition alignments, or turnout patterns among key regional blocs before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市场开放时间： Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET
交易量
$35,831结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETThe Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls show Eduardo Gomes (PL) holding a clear lead for one Senate seat in Tocantins, while the second position remains contested among Alexandre Guimarães (MDB), Gaguim (União Brasil), and Vanderlei Luxemburgo (Podemos), with their support clustered in the low-to-mid teens amid widespread indecision. This fragmentation, combined with voters selecting two candidates and roughly one-quarter to one-third still undecided or open to switching just weeks before the October 4 vote, sustains tight implied probabilities for second place. Further separation could emerge from late campaign events, coalition alignments, or turnout patterns among key regional blocs before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$35,831结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETRecent polls show Eduardo Gomes (PL) holding a clear lead for one Senate seat in Tocantins, while the second position remains contested among Alexandre Guimarães (MDB), Gaguim (União Brasil), and Vanderlei Luxemburgo (Podemos), with their support clustered in the low-to-mid teens amid widespread indecision. This fragmentation, combined with voters selecting two candidates and roughly one-quarter to one-third still undecided or open to switching just weeks before the October 4 vote, sustains tight implied probabilities for second place. Further separation could emerge from late campaign events, coalition alignments, or turnout patterns among key regional blocs before election day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题