**U.S. officials have clarified that recent directives focus on subcritical experiments and delivery system tests rather than full-yield nuclear explosive detonations, consistent with the post-1992 moratorium.** President Trump’s October 2025 statement calling for testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China initially raised expectations, but Energy Department and NNSA statements emphasized non-explosive activities at the Nevada National Security Site, aligning with annual stockpile stewardship certifications that confirm reliability without explosive yields. No underground nuclear test has occurred, and preparations for one would require substantial lead time under existing policy frameworks. Trader sentiment reflects this limited near-term pathway, with geopolitical accusations against other states and NPT-related tensions not yet translating into confirmed U.S. explosive test plans before late 2026. Scheduled congressional oversight and stockpile reviews remain key watchpoints.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$794,323 交易量
2026-09-30
2026年9月30日
1%
2026年12月31日
5%
$794,323 交易量
2026年9月30日
$57,555 交易量
1%
2026年12月31日
$75,957 交易量
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**U.S. officials have clarified that recent directives focus on subcritical experiments and delivery system tests rather than full-yield nuclear explosive detonations, consistent with the post-1992 moratorium.** President Trump’s October 2025 statement calling for testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China initially raised expectations, but Energy Department and NNSA statements emphasized non-explosive activities at the Nevada National Security Site, aligning with annual stockpile stewardship certifications that confirm reliability without explosive yields. No underground nuclear test has occurred, and preparations for one would require substantial lead time under existing policy frameworks. Trader sentiment reflects this limited near-term pathway, with geopolitical accusations against other states and NPT-related tensions not yet translating into confirmed U.S. explosive test plans before late 2026. Scheduled congressional oversight and stockpile reviews remain key watchpoints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
交易量
$794,323结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**U.S. officials have clarified that recent directives focus on subcritical experiments and delivery system tests rather than full-yield nuclear explosive detonations, consistent with the post-1992 moratorium.** President Trump’s October 2025 statement calling for testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China initially raised expectations, but Energy Department and NNSA statements emphasized non-explosive activities at the Nevada National Security Site, aligning with annual stockpile stewardship certifications that confirm reliability without explosive yields. No underground nuclear test has occurred, and preparations for one would require substantial lead time under existing policy frameworks. Trader sentiment reflects this limited near-term pathway, with geopolitical accusations against other states and NPT-related tensions not yet translating into confirmed U.S. explosive test plans before late 2026. Scheduled congressional oversight and stockpile reviews remain key watchpoints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$794,323结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET**U.S. officials have clarified that recent directives focus on subcritical experiments and delivery system tests rather than full-yield nuclear explosive detonations, consistent with the post-1992 moratorium.** President Trump’s October 2025 statement calling for testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China initially raised expectations, but Energy Department and NNSA statements emphasized non-explosive activities at the Nevada National Security Site, aligning with annual stockpile stewardship certifications that confirm reliability without explosive yields. No underground nuclear test has occurred, and preparations for one would require substantial lead time under existing policy frameworks. Trader sentiment reflects this limited near-term pathway, with geopolitical accusations against other states and NPT-related tensions not yet translating into confirmed U.S. explosive test plans before late 2026. Scheduled congressional oversight and stockpile reviews remain key watchpoints.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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