Traders assign a 95.3% probability against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027 due to extensive damage inflicted on key enrichment facilities during 2025-2026 US and Israeli strikes, combined with persistent IAEA denial of access to verify or advance the program. Recent developments, including the IAEA board's September 9, 2026 referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for safeguards non-compliance and satellite evidence of accelerated construction at the Pickaxe Mountain underground site near Natanz, reflect efforts to protect remaining assets rather than immediate weaponization. Ongoing diplomatic pressure, military threats, and technical hurdles from disrupted centrifuge operations and unaccounted highly enriched uranium stockpiles reinforce the consensus. Scenarios that could shift odds include a rapid Iranian decision to conduct a test amid escalated conflict or successful covert assembly of a device despite current constraints.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
4% 概率
$257,365 交易量
$257,365 交易量
2026-12-31
是
4% 概率
$257,365 交易量
$257,365 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 95.3% probability against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027 due to extensive damage inflicted on key enrichment facilities during 2025-2026 US and Israeli strikes, combined with persistent IAEA denial of access to verify or advance the program. Recent developments, including the IAEA board's September 9, 2026 referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for safeguards non-compliance and satellite evidence of accelerated construction at the Pickaxe Mountain underground site near Natanz, reflect efforts to protect remaining assets rather than immediate weaponization. Ongoing diplomatic pressure, military threats, and technical hurdles from disrupted centrifuge operations and unaccounted highly enriched uranium stockpiles reinforce the consensus. Scenarios that could shift odds include a rapid Iranian decision to conduct a test amid escalated conflict or successful covert assembly of a device despite current constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
交易量
$257,365结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 95.3% probability against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027 due to extensive damage inflicted on key enrichment facilities during 2025-2026 US and Israeli strikes, combined with persistent IAEA denial of access to verify or advance the program. Recent developments, including the IAEA board's September 9, 2026 referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for safeguards non-compliance and satellite evidence of accelerated construction at the Pickaxe Mountain underground site near Natanz, reflect efforts to protect remaining assets rather than immediate weaponization. Ongoing diplomatic pressure, military threats, and technical hurdles from disrupted centrifuge operations and unaccounted highly enriched uranium stockpiles reinforce the consensus. Scenarios that could shift odds include a rapid Iranian decision to conduct a test amid escalated conflict or successful covert assembly of a device despite current constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$257,365结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETTraders assign a 95.3% probability against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027 due to extensive damage inflicted on key enrichment facilities during 2025-2026 US and Israeli strikes, combined with persistent IAEA denial of access to verify or advance the program. Recent developments, including the IAEA board's September 9, 2026 referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for safeguards non-compliance and satellite evidence of accelerated construction at the Pickaxe Mountain underground site near Natanz, reflect efforts to protect remaining assets rather than immediate weaponization. Ongoing diplomatic pressure, military threats, and technical hurdles from disrupted centrifuge operations and unaccounted highly enriched uranium stockpiles reinforce the consensus. Scenarios that could shift odds include a rapid Iranian decision to conduct a test amid escalated conflict or successful covert assembly of a device despite current constraints.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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