Anthropic holds a 94% market-implied probability of listing first because OpenAI CEO Sam Altman explicitly ruled out a 2026 IPO on September 12, citing the need to prioritize AI safety, alignment work, and industry-government coordination on frontier model risks. OpenAI confidentially filed its S-1 in early June but now targets 2027, while Anthropic filed days earlier, is finalizing a $15 billion credit facility, and plans to begin marketing shares in mid-October with a potential debut before the November midterms. Trader consensus reflects Anthropic’s clearer near-term path, including reported discussions with Nvidia as an anchor investor and revenue run rates exceeding $65 billion. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include accelerated OpenAI safety milestones enabling a surprise late-2026 window or broader market volatility delaying Anthropic’s roadshow.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic或OpenAI会先上市吗？
Anthropic或OpenAI会先上市吗？
Anthropic
94% 概率
$365,885 交易量
$365,885 交易量
2027-12-30
Anthropic
94% 概率
$365,885 交易量
$365,885 交易量
2027-12-30
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic holds a 94% market-implied probability of listing first because OpenAI CEO Sam Altman explicitly ruled out a 2026 IPO on September 12, citing the need to prioritize AI safety, alignment work, and industry-government coordination on frontier model risks. OpenAI confidentially filed its S-1 in early June but now targets 2027, while Anthropic filed days earlier, is finalizing a $15 billion credit facility, and plans to begin marketing shares in mid-October with a potential debut before the November midterms. Trader consensus reflects Anthropic’s clearer near-term path, including reported discussions with Nvidia as an anchor investor and revenue run rates exceeding $65 billion. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include accelerated OpenAI safety milestones enabling a surprise late-2026 window or broader market volatility delaying Anthropic’s roadshow.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
交易量
$365,885结束日期
2027-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic holds a 94% market-implied probability of listing first because OpenAI CEO Sam Altman explicitly ruled out a 2026 IPO on September 12, citing the need to prioritize AI safety, alignment work, and industry-government coordination on frontier model risks. OpenAI confidentially filed its S-1 in early June but now targets 2027, while Anthropic filed days earlier, is finalizing a $15 billion credit facility, and plans to begin marketing shares in mid-October with a potential debut before the November midterms. Trader consensus reflects Anthropic’s clearer near-term path, including reported discussions with Nvidia as an anchor investor and revenue run rates exceeding $65 billion. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include accelerated OpenAI safety milestones enabling a surprise late-2026 window or broader market volatility delaying Anthropic’s roadshow.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$365,885结束日期
2027-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETAnthropic holds a 94% market-implied probability of listing first because OpenAI CEO Sam Altman explicitly ruled out a 2026 IPO on September 12, citing the need to prioritize AI safety, alignment work, and industry-government coordination on frontier model risks. OpenAI confidentially filed its S-1 in early June but now targets 2027, while Anthropic filed days earlier, is finalizing a $15 billion credit facility, and plans to begin marketing shares in mid-October with a potential debut before the November midterms. Trader consensus reflects Anthropic’s clearer near-term path, including reported discussions with Nvidia as an anchor investor and revenue run rates exceeding $65 billion. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include accelerated OpenAI safety milestones enabling a surprise late-2026 window or broader market volatility delaying Anthropic’s roadshow.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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