**El Niño-driven wind shear and a suppressed 2026 Atlantic season underpin the 86% market-implied probability that no Category 5 hurricane reaches the U.S. before 2027.** NOAA’s August 6 update projects only 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major (Category 3+) hurricanes for the full season, with a 75% chance of below-normal activity. Colorado State University and other forecasters similarly call for well-below-average totals, citing a moderate-to-strong El Niño that has elevated vertical wind shear across the main development region, disrupting organization and intensification. As of late August, the basin has produced just four weak named storms and zero hurricanes, with accumulated cyclone energy near record lows. A Category 5 (≥157 mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) is an extreme outlier even in active seasons; U.S. landfalls occur only a handful of times per century. With peak months still ahead but conditions hostile and time limited before the November close, the probability of such an event remains low. Upcoming National Hurricane Center forecast updates and any late-season model shifts could influence sentiment, yet current atmospheric and oceanic signals strongly favor continued suppression.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
14% 概率
$139,749 交易量
$139,749 交易量
2026-12-31
是
14% 概率
$139,749 交易量
$139,749 交易量
2026-12-31
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.**El Niño-driven wind shear and a suppressed 2026 Atlantic season underpin the 86% market-implied probability that no Category 5 hurricane reaches the U.S. before 2027.**
NOAA’s August 6 update projects only 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major (Category 3+) hurricanes for the full season, with a 75% chance of below-normal activity. Colorado State University and other forecasters similarly call for well-below-average totals, citing a moderate-to-strong El Niño that has elevated vertical wind shear across the main development region, disrupting organization and intensification. As of late August, the basin has produced just four weak named storms and zero hurricanes, with accumulated cyclone energy near record lows.
A Category 5 (≥157 mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) is an extreme outlier even in active seasons; U.S. landfalls occur only a handful of times per century. With peak months still ahead but conditions hostile and time limited before the November close, the probability of such an event remains low. Upcoming National Hurricane Center forecast updates and any late-season model shifts could influence sentiment, yet current atmospheric and oceanic signals strongly favor continued suppression.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
市场开放时间： Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
交易量
$139,749结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETFor the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.**El Niño-driven wind shear and a suppressed 2026 Atlantic season underpin the 86% market-implied probability that no Category 5 hurricane reaches the U.S. before 2027.**
NOAA’s August 6 update projects only 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major (Category 3+) hurricanes for the full season, with a 75% chance of below-normal activity. Colorado State University and other forecasters similarly call for well-below-average totals, citing a moderate-to-strong El Niño that has elevated vertical wind shear across the main development region, disrupting organization and intensification. As of late August, the basin has produced just four weak named storms and zero hurricanes, with accumulated cyclone energy near record lows.
A Category 5 (≥157 mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) is an extreme outlier even in active seasons; U.S. landfalls occur only a handful of times per century. With peak months still ahead but conditions hostile and time limited before the November close, the probability of such an event remains low. Upcoming National Hurricane Center forecast updates and any late-season model shifts could influence sentiment, yet current atmospheric and oceanic signals strongly favor continued suppression.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
交易量
$139,749结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET**El Niño-driven wind shear and a suppressed 2026 Atlantic season underpin the 86% market-implied probability that no Category 5 hurricane reaches the U.S. before 2027.** NOAA’s August 6 update projects only 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major (Category 3+) hurricanes for the full season, with a 75% chance of below-normal activity. Colorado State University and other forecasters similarly call for well-below-average totals, citing a moderate-to-strong El Niño that has elevated vertical wind shear across the main development region, disrupting organization and intensification. As of late August, the basin has produced just four weak named storms and zero hurricanes, with accumulated cyclone energy near record lows. A Category 5 (≥157 mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) is an extreme outlier even in active seasons; U.S. landfalls occur only a handful of times per century. With peak months still ahead but conditions hostile and time limited before the November close, the probability of such an event remains low. Upcoming National Hurricane Center forecast updates and any late-season model shifts could influence sentiment, yet current atmospheric and oceanic signals strongly favor continued suppression.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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