Active southwest monsoon (habagat) flows and associated low-pressure systems are keeping Manila under persistent cloud cover and scattered showers into September 1, moderating overnight radiative cooling and anchoring the lowest temperature near the 25–27°C range. PAGASA and global model guidance show consensus on minimums of 25–28°C amid high humidity and southwest winds of 10–15 m/s, with any clearer breaks potentially allowing brief dips toward 25°C while sustained rain favors readings closer to 27°C. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around these values reflects residual uncertainty in exact timing of heaviest precipitation and cloud persistence overnight, rather than major forecast divergence. Historical September lows average near 25°C, but current dynamical conditions tilt probabilities toward the upper end of that envelope.