Strong trader consensus on "No" at 98.5% stems from NASA's Sentry impact monitoring and CNEOS fireball data showing no near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of a ≥1 megaton airburst in 2026. Planetary defense surveys like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS have not flagged any threats of the necessary size—roughly 50 meters or larger—while historical rates indicate such events occur once per several centuries. With only months remaining and refined orbital models confirming background risk levels, the market reflects verified absence of hazards rather than speculation. Realistic shifts remain possible via discovery of a long-period comet or undetected small body, though detection thresholds and short remaining timeline create substantial barriers to altering the outcome.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert1 Megatonnen-Meteorschlag im Jahr 2026?
1 Megatonnen-Meteorschlag im Jahr 2026?
Ja
2% Chance
$117,272 Vol.
$117,272 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
2% Chance
$117,272 Vol.
$117,272 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Strong trader consensus on "No" at 98.5% stems from NASA's Sentry impact monitoring and CNEOS fireball data showing no near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of a ≥1 megaton airburst in 2026. Planetary defense surveys like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS have not flagged any threats of the necessary size—roughly 50 meters or larger—while historical rates indicate such events occur once per several centuries. With only months remaining and refined orbital models confirming background risk levels, the market reflects verified absence of hazards rather than speculation. Realistic shifts remain possible via discovery of a long-period comet or undetected small body, though detection thresholds and short remaining timeline create substantial barriers to altering the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volumen
$117,272Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Strong trader consensus on "No" at 98.5% stems from NASA's Sentry impact monitoring and CNEOS fireball data showing no near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of a ≥1 megaton airburst in 2026. Planetary defense surveys like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS have not flagged any threats of the necessary size—roughly 50 meters or larger—while historical rates indicate such events occur once per several centuries. With only months remaining and refined orbital models confirming background risk levels, the market reflects verified absence of hazards rather than speculation. Realistic shifts remain possible via discovery of a long-period comet or undetected small body, though detection thresholds and short remaining timeline create substantial barriers to altering the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$117,272Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Strong trader consensus on "No" at 98.5% stems from NASA's Sentry impact monitoring and CNEOS fireball data showing no near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of a ≥1 megaton airburst in 2026. Planetary defense surveys like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS have not flagged any threats of the necessary size—roughly 50 meters or larger—while historical rates indicate such events occur once per several centuries. With only months remaining and refined orbital models confirming background risk levels, the market reflects verified absence of hazards rather than speculation. Realistic shifts remain possible via discovery of a long-period comet or undetected small body, though detection thresholds and short remaining timeline create substantial barriers to altering the outcome.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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