Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal minority government, formed after the 2025 election, has stabilized through recent by-election victories that expanded its seat count and through opposition weakness. Recent polling shows the Liberals holding a double-digit national lead, with Carney’s approval ratings above 60 percent amid ongoing U.S. trade tensions. No non-confidence motions or supply threats have emerged in the House of Commons, and the government faces no immediate procedural pressure to dissolve Parliament before the fixed October 2029 date. Cabinet planning sessions and the return of Parliament this fall are focused on trade and domestic priorities rather than electoral timing. Traders therefore price a low probability of an early federal election call, consistent with historical patterns in which stable minority governments with rising support rarely seek dissolution.