Recent polling ahead of Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum shows consistent majorities of 64–74% favoring the province remaining in Canada versus 22–33% supporting steps toward a binding separation vote, with leads of 30–50 points across multiple firms. The ballot question asks only whether Alberta should begin the constitutional process for a later independence referendum rather than decide separation itself, and Premier Danielle Smith has stated she will support remaining in Confederation. Legal challenges to separatist petitions, including requirements for Indigenous consultation, and voter concerns over economic risks, pensions, public services, and potential U.S. integration have kept support for independence low and stable or declining since early 2026. These factors underpin trader consensus that no independence vote will occur in 2026.