**Erdoğan’s firm institutional control and the absence of any near-term removal mechanisms underpin the 94.5% “No” odds.** His second term under the executive presidential system runs until 2028, with the ruling AKP-MHP alliance holding a parliamentary majority short of the 360 votes needed for an early election that could reset term limits. Recent months show continued governance activity, including cabinet meetings on exports, housing projects, and regional security, alongside legislative steps on PKK disarmament. Opposition fragmentation—marked by court rulings removing CHP leadership, the jailing of rival Ekrem İmamoğlu, and party splits—has further reduced immediate challenges. No credible reports indicate health concerns, resignation pressure, or sudden electoral or military developments that could force an exit before year-end. Traders therefore view any departure by December 31, 2026, as highly improbable given these structural and political realities.