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Geopolitik·Öl

Wie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße in der Woche vom 24. August?

icon for Wie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße in der Woche vom 24. August?
Geopolitik·Öl

Wie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße in der Woche vom 24. August?

Aug. 30

Sep. 6

Aug. 30

Sep. 6

180-199 44%

200-219 41%

160-179 9%

220+ 7%

Polymarket

$18,899 Vol.

180-199 44%

200-219 41%

160-179 9%

220+ 7%

Polymarket

$18,899 Vol.

<160

$490 Vol.

<1%

160-179

$630 Vol.

9%

180-199

$451 Vol.

44%

200-219

$14,635 Vol.

41%

220+

$2,692 Vol.

7%

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi strikes, including the August 24 attack on the Saudi-linked tanker Amzan and the lethal August 11 strike on the Tihamah, have reinforced the blockade on Saudi tonnage and kept war-risk premiums elevated, suppressing tanker transits while select container lines cautiously resume Suez routings. AIS-visible weekly counts through Bab el-Mandeb have clustered near 200–223 in mid-August, with dark transits adding uncertainty and total volumes still roughly 40% below pre-crisis benchmarks. Major carriers’ August 24 commitments to additional east-west services via Suez have supported the 200–219 band, yet persistent attacks and selective diversions create downside pressure toward 180–199. The narrow spread between these two outcomes reflects trader focus on whether incremental container gains can offset ongoing tanker weakness ahead of the next round of weekly AIS releases.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volumen
$18,899
Enddatum
30. Aug. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ET

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi strikes, including the August 24 attack on the Saudi-linked tanker Amzan and the lethal August 11 strike on the Tihamah, have reinforced the blockade on Saudi tonnage and kept war-risk premiums elevated, suppressing tanker transits while select container lines cautiously resume Suez routings. AIS-visible weekly counts through Bab el-Mandeb have clustered near 200–223 in mid-August, with dark transits adding uncertainty and total volumes still roughly 40% below pre-crisis benchmarks. Major carriers’ August 24 commitments to additional east-west services via Suez have supported the 200–219 band, yet persistent attacks and selective diversions create downside pressure toward 180–199. The narrow spread between these two outcomes reflects trader focus on whether incremental container gains can offset ongoing tanker weakness ahead of the next round of weekly AIS releases.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volumen
$18,899
Enddatum
30. Aug. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ET

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Verwandte

icon for Werden 190-209 Schiffe die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße zwischen dem 31. August und dem 6. September passieren?

Werden 190-209 Schiffe die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße zwischen dem 31. August und dem 6. September passieren?

43%
Ja
icon for Wird es am 31. August zwischen 25 und 29 durchschnittliche tägliche Durchfahrten durch die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße geben?

Wird es am 31. August zwischen 25 und 29 durchschnittliche tägliche Durchfahrten durch die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße geben?

43%
Ja
icon for Wird es am 30. September zwischen 30 und 34 durchschnittliche tägliche Durchfahrten durch die Bab al-Mandab-Straße geben?

Wird es am 30. September zwischen 30 und 34 durchschnittliche tägliche Durchfahrten durch die Bab al-Mandab-Straße geben?

26%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Wie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße in der Woche vom 24. August?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 5 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „180-199" mit 44%, gefolgt von „200-219" mit 41%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 44¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 44% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Wie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße in der Woche vom 24. August?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $18.9K generiert, seit der Markt am Aug 21, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Wie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße in der Woche vom 24. August?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 5 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Wie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße in der Woche vom 24. August?" ist „180-199" mit 44%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 44% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „200-219" mit 41%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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