**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 89.1% reflects the inherent rarity of VEI ≥6 eruptions and the absence of supporting precursors as of late August 2026.** Such colossal events, which eject at least 10 km³ of material and produce plumes exceeding 30 km, occur on average only once every 50–100 years; the most recent was Pinatubo in 1991. Official monitoring from USGS, Smithsonian GVP, and national agencies shows only moderate activity worldwide, including frequent low-VEI explosions at Semeru, Sakurajima, and Lewotobi, plus episodic lava fountaining at Kīlauea (typically VEI 1–2). No volcano currently exhibits the sustained deep seismicity, rapid inflation, or magmatic unrest required for rapid escalation to Plinian-scale explosivity. With four months remaining, the probability of an unforeseen major event remains low given established recurrence intervals and real-time surveillance data.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertGroßer Vulkanausbruch (vei ≥6) im Jahr 2026?
Großer Vulkanausbruch (vei ≥6) im Jahr 2026?
Ja
11% Chance
$145,338 Vol.
$145,338 Vol.
30. März 2027
Ja
11% Chance
$145,338 Vol.
$145,338 Vol.
30. März 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 89.1% reflects the inherent rarity of VEI ≥6 eruptions and the absence of supporting precursors as of late August 2026.** Such colossal events, which eject at least 10 km³ of material and produce plumes exceeding 30 km, occur on average only once every 50–100 years; the most recent was Pinatubo in 1991. Official monitoring from USGS, Smithsonian GVP, and national agencies shows only moderate activity worldwide, including frequent low-VEI explosions at Semeru, Sakurajima, and Lewotobi, plus episodic lava fountaining at Kīlauea (typically VEI 1–2). No volcano currently exhibits the sustained deep seismicity, rapid inflation, or magmatic unrest required for rapid escalation to Plinian-scale explosivity. With four months remaining, the probability of an unforeseen major event remains low given established recurrence intervals and real-time surveillance data.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volumen
$145,338Enddatum
31. März 2027Markt eröffnet
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 89.1% reflects the inherent rarity of VEI ≥6 eruptions and the absence of supporting precursors as of late August 2026.** Such colossal events, which eject at least 10 km³ of material and produce plumes exceeding 30 km, occur on average only once every 50–100 years; the most recent was Pinatubo in 1991. Official monitoring from USGS, Smithsonian GVP, and national agencies shows only moderate activity worldwide, including frequent low-VEI explosions at Semeru, Sakurajima, and Lewotobi, plus episodic lava fountaining at Kīlauea (typically VEI 1–2). No volcano currently exhibits the sustained deep seismicity, rapid inflation, or magmatic unrest required for rapid escalation to Plinian-scale explosivity. With four months remaining, the probability of an unforeseen major event remains low given established recurrence intervals and real-time surveillance data.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volumen
$145,338Enddatum
31. März 2027Markt eröffnet
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 89.1% reflects the inherent rarity of VEI ≥6 eruptions and the absence of supporting precursors as of late August 2026.** Such colossal events, which eject at least 10 km³ of material and produce plumes exceeding 30 km, occur on average only once every 50–100 years; the most recent was Pinatubo in 1991. Official monitoring from USGS, Smithsonian GVP, and national agencies shows only moderate activity worldwide, including frequent low-VEI explosions at Semeru, Sakurajima, and Lewotobi, plus episodic lava fountaining at Kīlauea (typically VEI 1–2). No volcano currently exhibits the sustained deep seismicity, rapid inflation, or magmatic unrest required for rapid escalation to Plinian-scale explosivity. With four months remaining, the probability of an unforeseen major event remains low given established recurrence intervals and real-time surveillance data.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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