**No at 87% reflects the continued absence of any qualifying extreme events through early September 2026.** No Category 5 hurricane has made U.S. landfall, consistent with NOAA and NHC observations of suppressed Atlantic activity under neutral-to-cool ENSO conditions and elevated wind shear. USGS records show the strongest events remain well below the 8.5-magnitude threshold, including the June Venezuela doublet (7.2–7.5) and August Colombia quake (7.4). No VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption or 10 kt+ meteor strike has occurred. These thresholds are historically rare—major quakes of 8.5+ average fewer than one per decade globally, and U.S. Category 5 landfalls are infrequent even in active seasons. With the Atlantic hurricane season winding down and no imminent signals of qualifying activity from official monitoring, trader consensus favors resolution to No absent a late-year surprise.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNaturkatastrophe 2026?
Naturkatastrophe 2026?
Ja
13% Chance
$245,819 Vol.
$245,819 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
13% Chance
$245,819 Vol.
$245,819 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
**No at 87% reflects the continued absence of any qualifying extreme events through early September 2026.** No Category 5 hurricane has made U.S. landfall, consistent with NOAA and NHC observations of suppressed Atlantic activity under neutral-to-cool ENSO conditions and elevated wind shear. USGS records show the strongest events remain well below the 8.5-magnitude threshold, including the June Venezuela doublet (7.2–7.5) and August Colombia quake (7.4). No VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption or 10 kt+ meteor strike has occurred. These thresholds are historically rare—major quakes of 8.5+ average fewer than one per decade globally, and U.S. Category 5 landfalls are infrequent even in active seasons. With the Atlantic hurricane season winding down and no imminent signals of qualifying activity from official monitoring, trader consensus favors resolution to No absent a late-year surprise.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Markt eröffnet: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volumen
$245,819Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
**No at 87% reflects the continued absence of any qualifying extreme events through early September 2026.** No Category 5 hurricane has made U.S. landfall, consistent with NOAA and NHC observations of suppressed Atlantic activity under neutral-to-cool ENSO conditions and elevated wind shear. USGS records show the strongest events remain well below the 8.5-magnitude threshold, including the June Venezuela doublet (7.2–7.5) and August Colombia quake (7.4). No VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption or 10 kt+ meteor strike has occurred. These thresholds are historically rare—major quakes of 8.5+ average fewer than one per decade globally, and U.S. Category 5 landfalls are infrequent even in active seasons. With the Atlantic hurricane season winding down and no imminent signals of qualifying activity from official monitoring, trader consensus favors resolution to No absent a late-year surprise.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volumen
$245,819Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...**No at 87% reflects the continued absence of any qualifying extreme events through early September 2026.** No Category 5 hurricane has made U.S. landfall, consistent with NOAA and NHC observations of suppressed Atlantic activity under neutral-to-cool ENSO conditions and elevated wind shear. USGS records show the strongest events remain well below the 8.5-magnitude threshold, including the June Venezuela doublet (7.2–7.5) and August Colombia quake (7.4). No VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption or 10 kt+ meteor strike has occurred. These thresholds are historically rare—major quakes of 8.5+ average fewer than one per decade globally, and U.S. Category 5 landfalls are infrequent even in active seasons. With the Atlantic hurricane season winding down and no imminent signals of qualifying activity from official monitoring, trader consensus favors resolution to No absent a late-year surprise.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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