Recent polling in Sergipe's Senate race for the October 4 election shows a fragmented field, with Delegado André David and Rogério Carvalho often tied or leading in first-round intentions around 11-20%, followed closely by André Moura, Delegado Alessandro, Edvaldo Nogueira, and Eduardo Amorim in the single digits or low teens. High undecided rates above 20% and voters selecting two candidates contribute to the tight probabilities for first place. No candidate has consolidated broad support, keeping the outcome open to shifts from late campaign events, turnout patterns among key voting blocs, or last-minute alliances. This polling dispersion aligns with current trader assessments of a competitive contest lacking a dominant frontrunner.