Recent polling showing a tossup between Mary Peltola and Dan Sullivan, with additional minor candidates on the ballot, has kept trader expectations for first-round turnout tightly clustered around mid-range totals. Alaska’s ranked-choice system and the absence of a presidential contest on the November 3 ballot limit overall participation relative to 2024 levels, while high motivation among voters age 50 and older—driven by issues like healthcare and costs—supports steady but not record engagement. Recent primary turnout near 28 percent of registered voters and split survey results on enthusiasm among independents and younger cohorts reinforce the narrow spread across the leading outcome bins. Late campaign events or shifts in voter mobilization could still widen the distribution.