A strengthening El Niño event, now approaching super-El Niño intensity in the equatorial Pacific, has superimposed additional warmth on the long-term anthropogenic trend, driving August 2026 global mean surface temperatures to record levels. Early analyses from datasets such as ERA5 indicate a monthly anomaly near 1.4 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, consistent with the market’s 99 % consensus on the 1.38–1.41 °C bin. Official agencies including Copernicus and NOAA have reported record sea-surface temperatures and widespread heat anomalies, with model runs and preliminary observations converging tightly on this narrow range. Revisions in final homogenized datasets, differences between surface and lower-tropospheric metrics, or late adjustments to the El Niño index could still shift the precise value, though current observational consensus leaves little room for outcomes outside the leading bin.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAgosto 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC) (HUELGAS MÁS ALTAS)
Agosto 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC) (HUELGAS MÁS ALTAS)
1.38–1.41ºC 99.0%
1.42–1.45ºC 1.3%
1.34–1.37ºC <1%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,711 Vol.
$20,711 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<1.30ºC
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC
99%
1.42–1.45ºC
1%
>1.45ºC
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC 99.0%
1.42–1.45ºC 1.3%
1.34–1.37ºC <1%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,711 Vol.
$20,711 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<1.30ºC
$657 Vol.
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
$1,462 Vol.
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
$3,134 Vol.
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC
$4,676 Vol.
99%
1.42–1.45ºC
$9,252 Vol.
1%
>1.45ºC
$1,531 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening El Niño event, now approaching super-El Niño intensity in the equatorial Pacific, has superimposed additional warmth on the long-term anthropogenic trend, driving August 2026 global mean surface temperatures to record levels. Early analyses from datasets such as ERA5 indicate a monthly anomaly near 1.4 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, consistent with the market’s 99 % consensus on the 1.38–1.41 °C bin. Official agencies including Copernicus and NOAA have reported record sea-surface temperatures and widespread heat anomalies, with model runs and preliminary observations converging tightly on this narrow range. Revisions in final homogenized datasets, differences between surface and lower-tropospheric metrics, or late adjustments to the El Niño index could still shift the precise value, though current observational consensus leaves little room for outcomes outside the leading bin.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercado abierto: Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Volumen
$20,711Fecha de finalización
1 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening El Niño event, now approaching super-El Niño intensity in the equatorial Pacific, has superimposed additional warmth on the long-term anthropogenic trend, driving August 2026 global mean surface temperatures to record levels. Early analyses from datasets such as ERA5 indicate a monthly anomaly near 1.4 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, consistent with the market’s 99 % consensus on the 1.38–1.41 °C bin. Official agencies including Copernicus and NOAA have reported record sea-surface temperatures and widespread heat anomalies, with model runs and preliminary observations converging tightly on this narrow range. Revisions in final homogenized datasets, differences between surface and lower-tropospheric metrics, or late adjustments to the El Niño index could still shift the precise value, though current observational consensus leaves little room for outcomes outside the leading bin.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$20,711Fecha de finalización
1 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A strengthening El Niño event, now approaching super-El Niño intensity in the equatorial Pacific, has superimposed additional warmth on the long-term anthropogenic trend, driving August 2026 global mean surface temperatures to record levels. Early analyses from datasets such as ERA5 indicate a monthly anomaly near 1.4 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, consistent with the market’s 99 % consensus on the 1.38–1.41 °C bin. Official agencies including Copernicus and NOAA have reported record sea-surface temperatures and widespread heat anomalies, with model runs and preliminary observations converging tightly on this narrow range. Revisions in final homogenized datasets, differences between surface and lower-tropospheric metrics, or late adjustments to the El Niño index could still shift the precise value, though current observational consensus leaves little room for outcomes outside the leading bin.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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