A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño—already producing Niño 3.4 anomalies near +2.7 °C and projected to peak above +3.5 °C—dominates trader positioning for the September 2026 global temperature anomaly. Official monitoring from NOAA and ECMWF shows equatorial Pacific warmth well into “very strong” territory, with atmospheric coupling reinforcing the event and pushing September 2026 toward the warmest such month on record. Recent model runs and early-month observations place the anomaly near or above 1.4 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, yet intra-month variability, the precise timing of peak SST influence, and minor model spread in ENSO teleconnections keep the five central bins nearly equiprobable. Traders are therefore weighting the balance between continued El Niño-driven warming and any short-term cooling influences or measurement revisions that could shift the final value across the narrow 0.05 °C intervals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSeptiembre 2026 Aumento de Temperatura (ºC)
Septiembre 2026 Aumento de Temperatura (ºC)
<1,30ºC 50%
1,30–1,34°C 50%
1,35–1,39ºC 50%
1,40–1,44ºC 50%
NUEVO
NUEVO
9 oct 2026
<1,30ºC
50%
1,30–1,34°C
50%
1,35–1,39ºC
50%
1,40–1,44ºC
50%
1,45–1,49ºC
50%
>1,49ºC
50%
<1,30ºC 50%
1,30–1,34°C 50%
1,35–1,39ºC 50%
1,40–1,44ºC 50%
NUEVO
NUEVO
9 oct 2026
<1,30ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1,30–1,34°C
$0 Vol.
50%
1,35–1,39ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1,40–1,44ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1,45–1,49ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
>1,49ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño—already producing Niño 3.4 anomalies near +2.7 °C and projected to peak above +3.5 °C—dominates trader positioning for the September 2026 global temperature anomaly. Official monitoring from NOAA and ECMWF shows equatorial Pacific warmth well into “very strong” territory, with atmospheric coupling reinforcing the event and pushing September 2026 toward the warmest such month on record. Recent model runs and early-month observations place the anomaly near or above 1.4 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, yet intra-month variability, the precise timing of peak SST influence, and minor model spread in ENSO teleconnections keep the five central bins nearly equiprobable. Traders are therefore weighting the balance between continued El Niño-driven warming and any short-term cooling influences or measurement revisions that could shift the final value across the narrow 0.05 °C intervals.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercado abierto: Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
10 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño—already producing Niño 3.4 anomalies near +2.7 °C and projected to peak above +3.5 °C—dominates trader positioning for the September 2026 global temperature anomaly. Official monitoring from NOAA and ECMWF shows equatorial Pacific warmth well into “very strong” territory, with atmospheric coupling reinforcing the event and pushing September 2026 toward the warmest such month on record. Recent model runs and early-month observations place the anomaly near or above 1.4 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, yet intra-month variability, the precise timing of peak SST influence, and minor model spread in ENSO teleconnections keep the five central bins nearly equiprobable. Traders are therefore weighting the balance between continued El Niño-driven warming and any short-term cooling influences or measurement revisions that could shift the final value across the narrow 0.05 °C intervals.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
10 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtResolver
0x69c47De9D...A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño—already producing Niño 3.4 anomalies near +2.7 °C and projected to peak above +3.5 °C—dominates trader positioning for the September 2026 global temperature anomaly. Official monitoring from NOAA and ECMWF shows equatorial Pacific warmth well into “very strong” territory, with atmospheric coupling reinforcing the event and pushing September 2026 toward the warmest such month on record. Recent model runs and early-month observations place the anomaly near or above 1.4 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, yet intra-month variability, the precise timing of peak SST influence, and minor model spread in ENSO teleconnections keep the five central bins nearly equiprobable. Traders are therefore weighting the balance between continued El Niño-driven warming and any short-term cooling influences or measurement revisions that could shift the final value across the narrow 0.05 °C intervals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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