Persistent euro area inflation at 3.3% in August 2026, driven by energy prices surging amid Middle East conflicts, has kept the ECB on a tightening path with the deposit facility rate at 2.25% following the June hike. The central bank’s data-dependent approach and resilient growth have led traders to price in another 25-basis-point increase at the September 10 meeting, with consensus forecasts pointing to rates peaking near 2.5% through year-end rather than easing. This environment underpins the 95.5% market-implied probability against an ECB rate cut in 2026. Tail risks include a rapid de-escalation in geopolitical tensions that sharply lowers energy costs or an unexpected growth slowdown that reopens room for policy easing before December.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
5% probabilidad
$31,968 Vol.
$31,968 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
5% probabilidad
$31,968 Vol.
$31,968 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent euro area inflation at 3.3% in August 2026, driven by energy prices surging amid Middle East conflicts, has kept the ECB on a tightening path with the deposit facility rate at 2.25% following the June hike. The central bank’s data-dependent approach and resilient growth have led traders to price in another 25-basis-point increase at the September 10 meeting, with consensus forecasts pointing to rates peaking near 2.5% through year-end rather than easing. This environment underpins the 95.5% market-implied probability against an ECB rate cut in 2026. Tail risks include a rapid de-escalation in geopolitical tensions that sharply lowers energy costs or an unexpected growth slowdown that reopens room for policy easing before December.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Volumen
$31,968Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent euro area inflation at 3.3% in August 2026, driven by energy prices surging amid Middle East conflicts, has kept the ECB on a tightening path with the deposit facility rate at 2.25% following the June hike. The central bank’s data-dependent approach and resilient growth have led traders to price in another 25-basis-point increase at the September 10 meeting, with consensus forecasts pointing to rates peaking near 2.5% through year-end rather than easing. This environment underpins the 95.5% market-implied probability against an ECB rate cut in 2026. Tail risks include a rapid de-escalation in geopolitical tensions that sharply lowers energy costs or an unexpected growth slowdown that reopens room for policy easing before December.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$31,968Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent euro area inflation at 3.3% in August 2026, driven by energy prices surging amid Middle East conflicts, has kept the ECB on a tightening path with the deposit facility rate at 2.25% following the June hike. The central bank’s data-dependent approach and resilient growth have led traders to price in another 25-basis-point increase at the September 10 meeting, with consensus forecasts pointing to rates peaking near 2.5% through year-end rather than easing. This environment underpins the 95.5% market-implied probability against an ECB rate cut in 2026. Tail risks include a rapid de-escalation in geopolitical tensions that sharply lowers energy costs or an unexpected growth slowdown that reopens room for policy easing before December.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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