Incumbent Ed Case secured the Democratic nomination for Hawaii's 1st Congressional District in the August 2026 primary, defeating a progressive challenger by a wide margin in a race centered on generational leadership and policy differences over immigration and election rules. The district, centered on Honolulu and rated D+13 by the Cook Political Report, has consistently delivered large Democratic margins in recent cycles, including Case's 2024 general election victory. All major forecasters rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election against Republican nominee Adriel Lam. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with this structural advantage and Case's established incumbency, though late developments such as a significant scandal or health event could still alter the outcome in this low-competition environment.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHI-01 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
HI-01 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$41,161 Vol.
$41,161 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Ed Case (D)
96%
Adriel Lam (R)
4%
$41,161 Vol.
$41,161 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Ed Case (D)
$15,163 Vol.
96%
Adriel Lam (R)
$25,998 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Ed Case secured the Democratic nomination for Hawaii's 1st Congressional District in the August 2026 primary, defeating a progressive challenger by a wide margin in a race centered on generational leadership and policy differences over immigration and election rules. The district, centered on Honolulu and rated D+13 by the Cook Political Report, has consistently delivered large Democratic margins in recent cycles, including Case's 2024 general election victory. All major forecasters rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election against Republican nominee Adriel Lam. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with this structural advantage and Case's established incumbency, though late developments such as a significant scandal or health event could still alter the outcome in this low-competition environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volumen
$41,161Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Ed Case secured the Democratic nomination for Hawaii's 1st Congressional District in the August 2026 primary, defeating a progressive challenger by a wide margin in a race centered on generational leadership and policy differences over immigration and election rules. The district, centered on Honolulu and rated D+13 by the Cook Political Report, has consistently delivered large Democratic margins in recent cycles, including Case's 2024 general election victory. All major forecasters rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election against Republican nominee Adriel Lam. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with this structural advantage and Case's established incumbency, though late developments such as a significant scandal or health event could still alter the outcome in this low-competition environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$41,161Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Ed Case secured the Democratic nomination for Hawaii's 1st Congressional District in the August 2026 primary, defeating a progressive challenger by a wide margin in a race centered on generational leadership and policy differences over immigration and election rules. The district, centered on Honolulu and rated D+13 by the Cook Political Report, has consistently delivered large Democratic margins in recent cycles, including Case's 2024 general election victory. All major forecasters rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election against Republican nominee Adriel Lam. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with this structural advantage and Case's established incumbency, though late developments such as a significant scandal or health event could still alter the outcome in this low-competition environment.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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