US and Israeli airstrikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying or burying much of its centrifuge capacity and leaving its stockpile of roughly 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium unaccounted for and likely inaccessible. A June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding established a ceasefire framework that includes Iranian commitments against nuclear weapons development and provisions for IAEA-supervised down-blending or removal of the material, while US assessments indicate the strikes extended Iran's breakout timeline to around one year. Ongoing disputes over inspector access to bombed facilities have kept enrichment activities suspended and the program largely dormant, supporting trader consensus that Iran will not possess a nuclear weapon by the end of 2026. Remaining uncertainties center on whether stalled final negotiations or undetected recovery of buried material could enable a rapid shift before the deadline, though infrastructure damage and verification gaps make such outcomes improbable.