Iran’s nuclear facilities suffered extensive damage from Israeli and US strikes in June 2025 and early 2026, leaving most centrifuges inoperable and large stocks of highly enriched uranium bottled up underground at sites including Esfahan, Natanz, and Fordow. The IAEA has had no verification access since mid-2025, creating a serious proliferation concern according to Director General Rafael Grossi in early September 2026 statements, yet satellite imagery and reports show no active enrichment or weaponization activity. Ongoing US-Iran talks under a memorandum of understanding emphasize down-blending under supervision and reinforce trader expectations that Tehran will not conduct a test by the end of 2026. Realistic shifts could still arise from clandestine recovery of surviving advanced centrifuges or enriched material, renewed construction at sites like Pickaxe Mountain, or an explicit policy reversal amid internal debates over nuclear doctrine.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Prueba nuclear de Irán antes de 2027?
¿Prueba nuclear de Irán antes de 2027?
Sí
4% probabilidad
$257,113 Vol.
$257,113 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
4% probabilidad
$257,113 Vol.
$257,113 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s nuclear facilities suffered extensive damage from Israeli and US strikes in June 2025 and early 2026, leaving most centrifuges inoperable and large stocks of highly enriched uranium bottled up underground at sites including Esfahan, Natanz, and Fordow. The IAEA has had no verification access since mid-2025, creating a serious proliferation concern according to Director General Rafael Grossi in early September 2026 statements, yet satellite imagery and reports show no active enrichment or weaponization activity. Ongoing US-Iran talks under a memorandum of understanding emphasize down-blending under supervision and reinforce trader expectations that Tehran will not conduct a test by the end of 2026. Realistic shifts could still arise from clandestine recovery of surviving advanced centrifuges or enriched material, renewed construction at sites like Pickaxe Mountain, or an explicit policy reversal amid internal debates over nuclear doctrine.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volumen
$257,113Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s nuclear facilities suffered extensive damage from Israeli and US strikes in June 2025 and early 2026, leaving most centrifuges inoperable and large stocks of highly enriched uranium bottled up underground at sites including Esfahan, Natanz, and Fordow. The IAEA has had no verification access since mid-2025, creating a serious proliferation concern according to Director General Rafael Grossi in early September 2026 statements, yet satellite imagery and reports show no active enrichment or weaponization activity. Ongoing US-Iran talks under a memorandum of understanding emphasize down-blending under supervision and reinforce trader expectations that Tehran will not conduct a test by the end of 2026. Realistic shifts could still arise from clandestine recovery of surviving advanced centrifuges or enriched material, renewed construction at sites like Pickaxe Mountain, or an explicit policy reversal amid internal debates over nuclear doctrine.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$257,113Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s nuclear facilities suffered extensive damage from Israeli and US strikes in June 2025 and early 2026, leaving most centrifuges inoperable and large stocks of highly enriched uranium bottled up underground at sites including Esfahan, Natanz, and Fordow. The IAEA has had no verification access since mid-2025, creating a serious proliferation concern according to Director General Rafael Grossi in early September 2026 statements, yet satellite imagery and reports show no active enrichment or weaponization activity. Ongoing US-Iran talks under a memorandum of understanding emphasize down-blending under supervision and reinforce trader expectations that Tehran will not conduct a test by the end of 2026. Realistic shifts could still arise from clandestine recovery of surviving advanced centrifuges or enriched material, renewed construction at sites like Pickaxe Mountain, or an explicit policy reversal amid internal debates over nuclear doctrine.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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