**Trader sentiment for a U.S. nuclear explosive test by late 2026 remains heavily discounted due to repeated official clarifications that any resumed activities will stay within the zero-yield standard.** President Trump’s October 2025 social media directive to test “on an equal basis” with Russia and China initially lifted near-term probabilities by signaling a potential end to the 1992 moratorium. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and National Nuclear Security Administration officials quickly narrowed the scope to subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic tests, and delivery-system flights at the Nevada National Security Site, consistent with existing stockpile stewardship programs. The February 2026 expiration of New START, U.S. accusations of a prior low-yield Chinese test, and congressional efforts to codify the moratorium have not altered this stance. No credible reporting indicates preparation for a full-yield detonation, and historical precedent plus technical timelines (24–36 months for readiness) reinforce the low implied probabilities reflected in current pricing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Prueba nuclear de EE. UU. realizada por...?
¿Prueba nuclear de EE. UU. realizada por...?
$795,287 Vol.
30 sep 2026
30 de septiembre de 2026
1%
31 de diciembre de 2026
5%
$795,287 Vol.
30 de septiembre de 2026
$57,555 Vol.
1%
31 de diciembre de 2026
$76,920 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**Trader sentiment for a U.S. nuclear explosive test by late 2026 remains heavily discounted due to repeated official clarifications that any resumed activities will stay within the zero-yield standard.**
President Trump’s October 2025 social media directive to test “on an equal basis” with Russia and China initially lifted near-term probabilities by signaling a potential end to the 1992 moratorium. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and National Nuclear Security Administration officials quickly narrowed the scope to subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic tests, and delivery-system flights at the Nevada National Security Site, consistent with existing stockpile stewardship programs. The February 2026 expiration of New START, U.S. accusations of a prior low-yield Chinese test, and congressional efforts to codify the moratorium have not altered this stance. No credible reporting indicates preparation for a full-yield detonation, and historical precedent plus technical timelines (24–36 months for readiness) reinforce the low implied probabilities reflected in current pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volumen
$795,287Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**Trader sentiment for a U.S. nuclear explosive test by late 2026 remains heavily discounted due to repeated official clarifications that any resumed activities will stay within the zero-yield standard.**
President Trump’s October 2025 social media directive to test “on an equal basis” with Russia and China initially lifted near-term probabilities by signaling a potential end to the 1992 moratorium. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and National Nuclear Security Administration officials quickly narrowed the scope to subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic tests, and delivery-system flights at the Nevada National Security Site, consistent with existing stockpile stewardship programs. The February 2026 expiration of New START, U.S. accusations of a prior low-yield Chinese test, and congressional efforts to codify the moratorium have not altered this stance. No credible reporting indicates preparation for a full-yield detonation, and historical precedent plus technical timelines (24–36 months for readiness) reinforce the low implied probabilities reflected in current pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$795,287Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader sentiment for a U.S. nuclear explosive test by late 2026 remains heavily discounted due to repeated official clarifications that any resumed activities will stay within the zero-yield standard.** President Trump’s October 2025 social media directive to test “on an equal basis” with Russia and China initially lifted near-term probabilities by signaling a potential end to the 1992 moratorium. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and National Nuclear Security Administration officials quickly narrowed the scope to subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic tests, and delivery-system flights at the Nevada National Security Site, consistent with existing stockpile stewardship programs. The February 2026 expiration of New START, U.S. accusations of a prior low-yield Chinese test, and congressional efforts to codify the moratorium have not altered this stance. No credible reporting indicates preparation for a full-yield detonation, and historical precedent plus technical timelines (24–36 months for readiness) reinforce the low implied probabilities reflected in current pricing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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