Incumbent Republican Mike Johnson, serving as Speaker of the House, holds a commanding position in Louisiana's 4th congressional district due to the area's strong Republican lean, reflected in a Partisan Voter Index of R+26 and consistent "Solid Republican" or "Safe Republican" ratings from major forecasters. Johnson benefits from substantial fundraising advantages, with over $20 million raised compared to under $300,000 for Democratic challengers Conrad Cable and Matthew Gromlich, alongside multiple Republican primary opponents. The November 3 open primary under Louisiana's majority-vote system favors the incumbent's established support base. Trader consensus at 94.5% Republican reflects this structural edge. Potential shifts could arise from late-breaking scandals, health developments affecting the candidate, or unusually high Democratic turnout, though the district's electoral math makes such outcomes improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoLA-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
LA-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$11,997 Vol.
$11,997 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
95%
Partido Demócrata
6%
$11,997 Vol.
$11,997 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$3,671 Vol.
95%
Partido Demócrata
$8,326 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Johnson, serving as Speaker of the House, holds a commanding position in Louisiana's 4th congressional district due to the area's strong Republican lean, reflected in a Partisan Voter Index of R+26 and consistent "Solid Republican" or "Safe Republican" ratings from major forecasters. Johnson benefits from substantial fundraising advantages, with over $20 million raised compared to under $300,000 for Democratic challengers Conrad Cable and Matthew Gromlich, alongside multiple Republican primary opponents. The November 3 open primary under Louisiana's majority-vote system favors the incumbent's established support base. Trader consensus at 94.5% Republican reflects this structural edge. Potential shifts could arise from late-breaking scandals, health developments affecting the candidate, or unusually high Democratic turnout, though the district's electoral math makes such outcomes improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volumen
$11,997Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Johnson, serving as Speaker of the House, holds a commanding position in Louisiana's 4th congressional district due to the area's strong Republican lean, reflected in a Partisan Voter Index of R+26 and consistent "Solid Republican" or "Safe Republican" ratings from major forecasters. Johnson benefits from substantial fundraising advantages, with over $20 million raised compared to under $300,000 for Democratic challengers Conrad Cable and Matthew Gromlich, alongside multiple Republican primary opponents. The November 3 open primary under Louisiana's majority-vote system favors the incumbent's established support base. Trader consensus at 94.5% Republican reflects this structural edge. Potential shifts could arise from late-breaking scandals, health developments affecting the candidate, or unusually high Democratic turnout, though the district's electoral math makes such outcomes improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$11,997Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mike Johnson, serving as Speaker of the House, holds a commanding position in Louisiana's 4th congressional district due to the area's strong Republican lean, reflected in a Partisan Voter Index of R+26 and consistent "Solid Republican" or "Safe Republican" ratings from major forecasters. Johnson benefits from substantial fundraising advantages, with over $20 million raised compared to under $300,000 for Democratic challengers Conrad Cable and Matthew Gromlich, alongside multiple Republican primary opponents. The November 3 open primary under Louisiana's majority-vote system favors the incumbent's established support base. Trader consensus at 94.5% Republican reflects this structural edge. Potential shifts could arise from late-breaking scandals, health developments affecting the candidate, or unusually high Democratic turnout, though the district's electoral math makes such outcomes improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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