Incumbent Democrat Jennifer McClellan holds a commanding position in Virginia’s 4th congressional district due to its strong Democratic lean, reflected in a D+17 Partisan Voter Index and her 67-point margin in the prior cycle. The seat encompasses Richmond and surrounding Southside areas, where McClellan advanced unopposed through the Democratic primary while the Republican primary produced nominee Robert Murray with minimal visibility or fundraising. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election, which also includes an independent candidate. Trader consensus at 96% for Democrats aligns with these structural factors. A late scandal, health event, or unforeseen national shift could still alter the outcome, though such developments remain low-probability given the district’s established voting patterns.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoVA-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
VA-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$41,614 Vol.
$41,614 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Jennifer McClellan (D)
96%
Robert Murray (R)
2%
$41,614 Vol.
$41,614 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Jennifer McClellan (D)
$12,217 Vol.
96%
Robert Murray (R)
$29,397 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jennifer McClellan holds a commanding position in Virginia’s 4th congressional district due to its strong Democratic lean, reflected in a D+17 Partisan Voter Index and her 67-point margin in the prior cycle. The seat encompasses Richmond and surrounding Southside areas, where McClellan advanced unopposed through the Democratic primary while the Republican primary produced nominee Robert Murray with minimal visibility or fundraising. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election, which also includes an independent candidate. Trader consensus at 96% for Democrats aligns with these structural factors. A late scandal, health event, or unforeseen national shift could still alter the outcome, though such developments remain low-probability given the district’s established voting patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volumen
$41,614Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jennifer McClellan holds a commanding position in Virginia’s 4th congressional district due to its strong Democratic lean, reflected in a D+17 Partisan Voter Index and her 67-point margin in the prior cycle. The seat encompasses Richmond and surrounding Southside areas, where McClellan advanced unopposed through the Democratic primary while the Republican primary produced nominee Robert Murray with minimal visibility or fundraising. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election, which also includes an independent candidate. Trader consensus at 96% for Democrats aligns with these structural factors. A late scandal, health event, or unforeseen national shift could still alter the outcome, though such developments remain low-probability given the district’s established voting patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$41,614Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jennifer McClellan holds a commanding position in Virginia’s 4th congressional district due to its strong Democratic lean, reflected in a D+17 Partisan Voter Index and her 67-point margin in the prior cycle. The seat encompasses Richmond and surrounding Southside areas, where McClellan advanced unopposed through the Democratic primary while the Republican primary produced nominee Robert Murray with minimal visibility or fundraising. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election, which also includes an independent candidate. Trader consensus at 96% for Democrats aligns with these structural factors. A late scandal, health event, or unforeseen national shift could still alter the outcome, though such developments remain low-probability given the district’s established voting patterns.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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