Official National Weather Service observations at Chicago O’Hare and Midway airports recorded a maximum of 95°F on September 1, 2026, directly supporting the market’s near-certain 94-95°F outcome. A late-season heat dome drove the anomaly, pushing temperatures roughly 15°F above the 1991-2020 normal high near 80°F amid elevated humidity. This aligns with the hottest September 1 start in over four decades, last matched or exceeded in 1984. Trader consensus reflects verified station data and minimal model or measurement uncertainty at resolution. Only an unlikely post-event revision to official records or use of an alternate station could shift the result.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on September 1?
Highest temperature in Chicago on September 1?
94-95°F 100.0%
81°F or below <1%
82-83°F <1%
84-85°F <1%
$22,846 Vol.
$22,846 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
81°F or below
No
82-83°F
No
84-85°F
No
86-87°F
No
88-89°F
No
90-91°F
No
92-93°F
No
94-95°F
Yes
96-97°F
No
98-99°F
No
100°F or higher
No
94-95°F 100.0%
81°F or below <1%
82-83°F <1%
84-85°F <1%
$22,846 Vol.
$22,846 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
81°F or below
$782 Vol.
No
82-83°F
$934 Vol.
No
84-85°F
$468 Vol.
No
86-87°F
$1,263 Vol.
No
88-89°F
$1,699 Vol.
No
90-91°F
$4,141 Vol.
No
92-93°F
$4,940 Vol.
No
94-95°F
$3,713 Vol.
Yes
96-97°F
$2,566 Vol.
No
98-99°F
$1,994 Vol.
No
100°F or higher
$346 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service observations at Chicago O’Hare and Midway airports recorded a maximum of 95°F on September 1, 2026, directly supporting the market’s near-certain 94-95°F outcome. A late-season heat dome drove the anomaly, pushing temperatures roughly 15°F above the 1991-2020 normal high near 80°F amid elevated humidity. This aligns with the hottest September 1 start in over four decades, last matched or exceeded in 1984. Trader consensus reflects verified station data and minimal model or measurement uncertainty at resolution. Only an unlikely post-event revision to official records or use of an alternate station could shift the result.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 30, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
Volume
$22,846End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service observations at Chicago O’Hare and Midway airports recorded a maximum of 95°F on September 1, 2026, directly supporting the market’s near-certain 94-95°F outcome. A late-season heat dome drove the anomaly, pushing temperatures roughly 15°F above the 1991-2020 normal high near 80°F amid elevated humidity. This aligns with the hottest September 1 start in over four decades, last matched or exceeded in 1984. Trader consensus reflects verified station data and minimal model or measurement uncertainty at resolution. Only an unlikely post-event revision to official records or use of an alternate station could shift the result.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$22,846End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official National Weather Service observations at Chicago O’Hare and Midway airports recorded a maximum of 95°F on September 1, 2026, directly supporting the market’s near-certain 94-95°F outcome. A late-season heat dome drove the anomaly, pushing temperatures roughly 15°F above the 1991-2020 normal high near 80°F amid elevated humidity. This aligns with the hottest September 1 start in over four decades, last matched or exceeded in 1984. Trader consensus reflects verified station data and minimal model or measurement uncertainty at resolution. Only an unlikely post-event revision to official records or use of an alternate station could shift the result.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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