**Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for a 25°C high in Paris on September 5, 2026, stems from convergent short-range forecasts issued by Météo-France and global models such as GFS and ECMWF.** These show a daytime maximum reaching exactly 25°C under a mix of morning cloud cover transitioning to mostly clear skies, with light northwest winds limiting mixing and urban heat retention. Current surface observations around midday align with this trajectory, tracking near the long-term September 5 average high of 23°C while avoiding the warmer anomalies seen in recent years. Resolution hinges on the official daily maximum recorded at the Paris-Montsouris station; minor deviations could arise from localized urban effects or final-hour model adjustments, but the tight clustering of guidance leaves little room for outcomes outside 24–26°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on September 5?
Highest temperature in Paris on September 5?
25°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$66,720 Vol.
$66,720 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
20°C or below
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$66,720 Vol.
$66,720 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
20°C or below
$1,142 Vol.
No
21°C
$2,181 Vol.
No
22°C
$3,143 Vol.
No
23°C
$8,562 Vol.
No
24°C
$15,461 Vol.
No
25°C
$13,567 Vol.
Yes
26°C
$12,420 Vol.
No
27°C
$6,190 Vol.
No
28°C
$1,698 Vol.
No
29°C
$933 Vol.
No
30°C or higher
$1,423 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for a 25°C high in Paris on September 5, 2026, stems from convergent short-range forecasts issued by Météo-France and global models such as GFS and ECMWF.** These show a daytime maximum reaching exactly 25°C under a mix of morning cloud cover transitioning to mostly clear skies, with light northwest winds limiting mixing and urban heat retention. Current surface observations around midday align with this trajectory, tracking near the long-term September 5 average high of 23°C while avoiding the warmer anomalies seen in recent years.
Resolution hinges on the official daily maximum recorded at the Paris-Montsouris station; minor deviations could arise from localized urban effects or final-hour model adjustments, but the tight clustering of guidance leaves little room for outcomes outside 24–26°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$66,720End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for a 25°C high in Paris on September 5, 2026, stems from convergent short-range forecasts issued by Météo-France and global models such as GFS and ECMWF.** These show a daytime maximum reaching exactly 25°C under a mix of morning cloud cover transitioning to mostly clear skies, with light northwest winds limiting mixing and urban heat retention. Current surface observations around midday align with this trajectory, tracking near the long-term September 5 average high of 23°C while avoiding the warmer anomalies seen in recent years.
Resolution hinges on the official daily maximum recorded at the Paris-Montsouris station; minor deviations could arise from localized urban effects or final-hour model adjustments, but the tight clustering of guidance leaves little room for outcomes outside 24–26°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$66,720End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for a 25°C high in Paris on September 5, 2026, stems from convergent short-range forecasts issued by Météo-France and global models such as GFS and ECMWF.** These show a daytime maximum reaching exactly 25°C under a mix of morning cloud cover transitioning to mostly clear skies, with light northwest winds limiting mixing and urban heat retention. Current surface observations around midday align with this trajectory, tracking near the long-term September 5 average high of 23°C while avoiding the warmer anomalies seen in recent years. Resolution hinges on the official daily maximum recorded at the Paris-Montsouris station; minor deviations could arise from localized urban effects or final-hour model adjustments, but the tight clustering of guidance leaves little room for outcomes outside 24–26°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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