**Official observations from the Japan Meteorological Agency confirm a daily maximum of 23°C in Tokyo on September 12, 2026, under cloudy skies with light rain and northeast winds that limited daytime heating.** Recent model runs and station data align closely with this value, reflecting typical early-September conditions near the seasonal average of roughly 23–25°C and showing no late surge from clearer skies or southerly flow. The market’s near-certain pricing for 23°C reflects real-time verification of recorded highs across central Tokyo stations, with minimal dispersion in official reports. Only an unusually large post-observation correction or station-specific discrepancy would shift the outcome, though current data consistency makes such revisions improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 12?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 12?
23°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$38,381 Vol.
$38,381 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
Yes
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C or higher
No
23°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$38,381 Vol.
$38,381 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
18°C or below
$1,108 Vol.
No
19°C
$1,226 Vol.
No
20°C
$1,255 Vol.
No
21°C
$2,169 Vol.
No
22°C
$4,396 Vol.
No
23°C
$8,878 Vol.
Yes
24°C
$4,199 Vol.
No
25°C
$4,893 Vol.
No
26°C
$3,845 Vol.
No
27°C
$3,669 Vol.
No
28°C or higher
$2,743 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official observations from the Japan Meteorological Agency confirm a daily maximum of 23°C in Tokyo on September 12, 2026, under cloudy skies with light rain and northeast winds that limited daytime heating.** Recent model runs and station data align closely with this value, reflecting typical early-September conditions near the seasonal average of roughly 23–25°C and showing no late surge from clearer skies or southerly flow. The market’s near-certain pricing for 23°C reflects real-time verification of recorded highs across central Tokyo stations, with minimal dispersion in official reports. Only an unusually large post-observation correction or station-specific discrepancy would shift the outcome, though current data consistency makes such revisions improbable.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$38,381End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official observations from the Japan Meteorological Agency confirm a daily maximum of 23°C in Tokyo on September 12, 2026, under cloudy skies with light rain and northeast winds that limited daytime heating.** Recent model runs and station data align closely with this value, reflecting typical early-September conditions near the seasonal average of roughly 23–25°C and showing no late surge from clearer skies or southerly flow. The market’s near-certain pricing for 23°C reflects real-time verification of recorded highs across central Tokyo stations, with minimal dispersion in official reports. Only an unusually large post-observation correction or station-specific discrepancy would shift the outcome, though current data consistency makes such revisions improbable.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$38,381End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Official observations from the Japan Meteorological Agency confirm a daily maximum of 23°C in Tokyo on September 12, 2026, under cloudy skies with light rain and northeast winds that limited daytime heating.** Recent model runs and station data align closely with this value, reflecting typical early-September conditions near the seasonal average of roughly 23–25°C and showing no late surge from clearer skies or southerly flow. The market’s near-certain pricing for 23°C reflects real-time verification of recorded highs across central Tokyo stations, with minimal dispersion in official reports. Only an unusually large post-observation correction or station-specific discrepancy would shift the outcome, though current data consistency makes such revisions improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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