Recent July 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI strength at 55.6—the highest since May 2022—has anchored trader expectations for the August reading, with production surging to 58.5, new orders at 56.7, and employment crossing into expansion at 52.8 for the first time in over two years. This momentum, alongside backlog expansion to 55.0 and customer inventories remaining “too low,” supports market-implied odds clustering tightly around 54.0–55.9, reflecting uncertainty over whether gains persist or moderate toward the 55.2 consensus forecast. Elevated but easing prices (71.1) and ongoing supply-chain frictions from tariffs and geopolitical tensions introduce downside risks, while broad-based industry participation sustains upside potential ahead of the September 1 release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated55.0–55.9 36%
54.0–54.9 34%
53.0–53.9 16.0%
56.0–56.9 8.3%
$42,896 Vol.
$42,896 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
<51.0
1%
51.0–51.9
3%
52.0–52.9
4%
53.0–53.9
13%
54.0–54.9
34%
55.0–55.9
36%
56.0–56.9
8%
57.0–57.9
2%
58.0–58.9
3%
59.0+
<1%
55.0–55.9 36%
54.0–54.9 34%
53.0–53.9 16.0%
56.0–56.9 8.3%
$42,896 Vol.
$42,896 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
<51.0
$1,065 Vol.
1%
51.0–51.9
$1,020 Vol.
3%
52.0–52.9
$1,396 Vol.
4%
53.0–53.9
$1,230 Vol.
13%
54.0–54.9
$9,491 Vol.
34%
55.0–55.9
$24,202 Vol.
36%
56.0–56.9
$1,591 Vol.
8%
57.0–57.9
$1,085 Vol.
2%
58.0–58.9
$1,037 Vol.
3%
59.0+
$778 Vol.
<1%
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI strength at 55.6—the highest since May 2022—has anchored trader expectations for the August reading, with production surging to 58.5, new orders at 56.7, and employment crossing into expansion at 52.8 for the first time in over two years. This momentum, alongside backlog expansion to 55.0 and customer inventories remaining “too low,” supports market-implied odds clustering tightly around 54.0–55.9, reflecting uncertainty over whether gains persist or moderate toward the 55.2 consensus forecast. Elevated but easing prices (71.1) and ongoing supply-chain frictions from tariffs and geopolitical tensions introduce downside risks, while broad-based industry participation sustains upside potential ahead of the September 1 release.
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$42,896End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI strength at 55.6—the highest since May 2022—has anchored trader expectations for the August reading, with production surging to 58.5, new orders at 56.7, and employment crossing into expansion at 52.8 for the first time in over two years. This momentum, alongside backlog expansion to 55.0 and customer inventories remaining “too low,” supports market-implied odds clustering tightly around 54.0–55.9, reflecting uncertainty over whether gains persist or moderate toward the 55.2 consensus forecast. Elevated but easing prices (71.1) and ongoing supply-chain frictions from tariffs and geopolitical tensions introduce downside risks, while broad-based industry participation sustains upside potential ahead of the September 1 release.
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$42,896End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI strength at 55.6—the highest since May 2022—has anchored trader expectations for the August reading, with production surging to 58.5, new orders at 56.7, and employment crossing into expansion at 52.8 for the first time in over two years. This momentum, alongside backlog expansion to 55.0 and customer inventories remaining “too low,” supports market-implied odds clustering tightly around 54.0–55.9, reflecting uncertainty over whether gains persist or moderate toward the 55.2 consensus forecast. Elevated but easing prices (71.1) and ongoing supply-chain frictions from tariffs and geopolitical tensions introduce downside risks, while broad-based industry participation sustains upside potential ahead of the September 1 release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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