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icon for Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

icon for Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

$446,277 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$446,277 Vol.

Polymarket

December 31

$159,686 Vol.

16%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Jerome Powell’s term as a Federal Reserve governor runs until January 31, 2028, following the end of his chairmanship in May 2026 when Kevin Warsh assumed the role. Fixed 14-year staggered terms and statutory “for cause” removal protections create high legal and procedural hurdles to an earlier exit, reinforced by recent court rulings blocking parallel attempts against other governors. Powell publicly stated in late April that he would remain on the board for an undetermined period amid administration pressure over policy and renovation costs, marking the first such post-chair tenure since 1948. Trader sentiment in related markets reflects these barriers, with low near-term probabilities priced for formal removal actions through year-end despite ongoing political tensions. Key upcoming catalysts include any new regulatory filings, congressional oversight, or shifts in administration strategy that could test the “for cause” standard before the 2028 expiration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$446,277
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jan 5, 2026, 4:12 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Jerome Powell’s term as a Federal Reserve governor runs until January 31, 2028, following the end of his chairmanship in May 2026 when Kevin Warsh assumed the role. Fixed 14-year staggered terms and statutory “for cause” removal protections create high legal and procedural hurdles to an earlier exit, reinforced by recent court rulings blocking parallel attempts against other governors. Powell publicly stated in late April that he would remain on the board for an undetermined period amid administration pressure over policy and renovation costs, marking the first such post-chair tenure since 1948. Trader sentiment in related markets reflects these barriers, with low near-term probabilities priced for formal removal actions through year-end despite ongoing political tensions. Key upcoming catalysts include any new regulatory filings, congressional oversight, or shifts in administration strategy that could test the “for cause” standard before the 2028 expiration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$446,277
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jan 5, 2026, 4:12 PM ET

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 16%, followed by "May 30" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 16¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?" has generated $446.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?" is "December 31" at 16%, meaning the market assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "May 30" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.