Trader sentiment heavily favors a 96.2% implied probability that Jerome Powell will not face jail time before 2027, driven by the April 2026 closure of the sole criminal probe into the Federal Reserve chair. Prosecutors found no evidence of wrongdoing in the headquarters renovation or related congressional testimony, after a federal judge quashed subpoenas and labeled the inquiry pretextual amid political pressure over interest-rate policy. With Powell’s term as chair having concluded and no active investigations or indictments outstanding, market-implied odds reflect the robust legal and institutional barriers to incarcerating a former central bank leader. Tail-risk scenarios remain remote but could include an unexpected revival of scrutiny by the Fed inspector general or novel political actions, though both face significant judicial and congressional hurdles.