**Persistent inflation above the FOMC’s 2% target, with the median June 2026 SEP projecting 3.6% headline PCE for year-end 2026 alongside a solid labor market, has produced a hawkish tilt in policy expectations and recent voting splits.** The July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% drew three dissents favoring a 25 bp hike (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan), the largest same-direction dissent bloc in a decade and a clear signal of widening dispersion among participants. Nine of 18 dot-plot submissions now project at least one rate increase by end-2026, up sharply from prior medians, while Chair Warsh’s communications have reinforced a firm commitment to price stability without forward guidance. With probabilities for two, three, or four-plus December dissents clustered within roughly three percentage points, outcomes hinge on whether additional regional presidents join the hawkish minority or incoming CPI, employment, and energy data allow a broader consensus around a hold. The market prices these closely matched scenarios as aggregated trader views on the balance of incoming data versus the current policy stance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many dissent at the December Fed meeting?
How many dissent at the December Fed meeting?
2 24.1%
3 23%
4+ 22%
1 16.7%
NEW
NEW
Dec 9, 2026
0
16%
1
17%
2
24%
3
23%
4+
22%
2 24.1%
3 23%
4+ 22%
1 16.7%
NEW
NEW
Dec 9, 2026
0
$6,195 Vol.
16%
1
$409 Vol.
17%
2
$210 Vol.
24%
3
$249 Vol.
23%
4+
$238 Vol.
22%
The December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on December 9, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the December Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Persistent inflation above the FOMC’s 2% target, with the median June 2026 SEP projecting 3.6% headline PCE for year-end 2026 alongside a solid labor market, has produced a hawkish tilt in policy expectations and recent voting splits.** The July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% drew three dissents favoring a 25 bp hike (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan), the largest same-direction dissent bloc in a decade and a clear signal of widening dispersion among participants. Nine of 18 dot-plot submissions now project at least one rate increase by end-2026, up sharply from prior medians, while Chair Warsh’s communications have reinforced a firm commitment to price stability without forward guidance.
With probabilities for two, three, or four-plus December dissents clustered within roughly three percentage points, outcomes hinge on whether additional regional presidents join the hawkish minority or incoming CPI, employment, and energy data allow a broader consensus around a hold. The market prices these closely matched scenarios as aggregated trader views on the balance of incoming data versus the current policy stance.
The December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on December 9, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the December Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the December Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 8:43 PM ET
Volume
$7,301End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 8:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on December 9, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the December Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Persistent inflation above the FOMC’s 2% target, with the median June 2026 SEP projecting 3.6% headline PCE for year-end 2026 alongside a solid labor market, has produced a hawkish tilt in policy expectations and recent voting splits.** The July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% drew three dissents favoring a 25 bp hike (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan), the largest same-direction dissent bloc in a decade and a clear signal of widening dispersion among participants. Nine of 18 dot-plot submissions now project at least one rate increase by end-2026, up sharply from prior medians, while Chair Warsh’s communications have reinforced a firm commitment to price stability without forward guidance.
With probabilities for two, three, or four-plus December dissents clustered within roughly three percentage points, outcomes hinge on whether additional regional presidents join the hawkish minority or incoming CPI, employment, and energy data allow a broader consensus around a hold. The market prices these closely matched scenarios as aggregated trader views on the balance of incoming data versus the current policy stance.
The December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on December 9, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the December Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the December Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$7,301End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 8:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent inflation above the FOMC’s 2% target, with the median June 2026 SEP projecting 3.6% headline PCE for year-end 2026 alongside a solid labor market, has produced a hawkish tilt in policy expectations and recent voting splits.** The July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% drew three dissents favoring a 25 bp hike (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan), the largest same-direction dissent bloc in a decade and a clear signal of widening dispersion among participants. Nine of 18 dot-plot submissions now project at least one rate increase by end-2026, up sharply from prior medians, while Chair Warsh’s communications have reinforced a firm commitment to price stability without forward guidance. With probabilities for two, three, or four-plus December dissents clustered within roughly three percentage points, outcomes hinge on whether additional regional presidents join the hawkish minority or incoming CPI, employment, and energy data allow a broader consensus around a hold. The market prices these closely matched scenarios as aggregated trader views on the balance of incoming data versus the current policy stance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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