Recent economic resilience, including steady labor market conditions and persistent inflation pressures from supply disruptions, has kept the federal funds rate anchored in the 3.50–3.75% target range through mid-2026. Hawkish shifts in June FOMC projections, with a median year-end rate at 3.8%, alongside new Chair Kevin Warsh’s data-dependent approach, have compressed probabilities across Fed decision sequences for the September, October, and December meetings. Trader consensus, reflected in Polymarket’s closely bunched outcomes with Pause–Pause–Pause leading at just 26%, highlights uncertainty over whether incoming CPI, employment data, or geopolitical energy shocks will tip policy toward hikes. The September 16 meeting with updated projections remains the key near-term catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPause–Pause–Pause 26%
Hike–Pause–Pause 18%
Pause–Hike–Hike 11%
Pause–Pause–Hike 11%
$11,653 Vol.
$11,653 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
8%
Hike–Pause–Pause
18%
Hike–Hike–Hike
5%
Hike–Hike–Pause
9%
Pause–Pause–Hike
11%
Pause–Pause–Pause
26%
Pause–Hike–Hike
11%
Pause–Hike–Pause
10%
Other
8%
Pause–Pause–Pause 26%
Hike–Pause–Pause 18%
Pause–Hike–Hike 11%
Pause–Pause–Hike 11%
$11,653 Vol.
$11,653 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
$314 Vol.
8%
Hike–Pause–Pause
$479 Vol.
18%
Hike–Hike–Hike
$216 Vol.
5%
Hike–Hike–Pause
$429 Vol.
9%
Pause–Pause–Hike
$253 Vol.
11%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$9,140 Vol.
26%
Pause–Hike–Hike
$237 Vol.
11%
Pause–Hike–Pause
$336 Vol.
10%
Other
$249 Vol.
8%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent economic resilience, including steady labor market conditions and persistent inflation pressures from supply disruptions, has kept the federal funds rate anchored in the 3.50–3.75% target range through mid-2026. Hawkish shifts in June FOMC projections, with a median year-end rate at 3.8%, alongside new Chair Kevin Warsh’s data-dependent approach, have compressed probabilities across Fed decision sequences for the September, October, and December meetings. Trader consensus, reflected in Polymarket’s closely bunched outcomes with Pause–Pause–Pause leading at just 26%, highlights uncertainty over whether incoming CPI, employment data, or geopolitical energy shocks will tip policy toward hikes. The September 16 meeting with updated projections remains the key near-term catalyst.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Volume
$11,653End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent economic resilience, including steady labor market conditions and persistent inflation pressures from supply disruptions, has kept the federal funds rate anchored in the 3.50–3.75% target range through mid-2026. Hawkish shifts in June FOMC projections, with a median year-end rate at 3.8%, alongside new Chair Kevin Warsh’s data-dependent approach, have compressed probabilities across Fed decision sequences for the September, October, and December meetings. Trader consensus, reflected in Polymarket’s closely bunched outcomes with Pause–Pause–Pause leading at just 26%, highlights uncertainty over whether incoming CPI, employment data, or geopolitical energy shocks will tip policy toward hikes. The September 16 meeting with updated projections remains the key near-term catalyst.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$11,653End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent economic resilience, including steady labor market conditions and persistent inflation pressures from supply disruptions, has kept the federal funds rate anchored in the 3.50–3.75% target range through mid-2026. Hawkish shifts in June FOMC projections, with a median year-end rate at 3.8%, alongside new Chair Kevin Warsh’s data-dependent approach, have compressed probabilities across Fed decision sequences for the September, October, and December meetings. Trader consensus, reflected in Polymarket’s closely bunched outcomes with Pause–Pause–Pause leading at just 26%, highlights uncertainty over whether incoming CPI, employment data, or geopolitical energy shocks will tip policy toward hikes. The September 16 meeting with updated projections remains the key near-term catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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