Recent price action around $494, following fiscal Q4 results that highlighted 18% revenue growth and Azure surpassing $100 billion in annual sales, has shaped trader sentiment for the September 25 close. Market-implied odds place the heaviest weighting on sub-$450 and the $490–$500 band, reflecting ongoing volatility in tech shares, profit-taking after earlier highs near $554, and the absence of immediate catalysts before the next earnings release in late October. Dividend hike and analyst consensus targets above $570 underscore fundamental strength in cloud and AI segments, yet near-term probabilities embed sensitivity to broader equity flows and macroeconomic signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$490-$500 30%
$480-$490 23%
$500-$510 20%
$450-$460 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
<$450
10%
$450-$460
11%
$460-$470
11%
$470-$480
10%
$480-$490
23%
$490-$500
30%
$500-$510
20%
$510-$520
8%
$520-$530
11%
$530-$540
11%
>$540
9%
$490-$500 30%
$480-$490 23%
$500-$510 20%
$450-$460 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
<$450
$0 Vol.
10%
$450-$460
$0 Vol.
11%
$460-$470
$0 Vol.
11%
$470-$480
$0 Vol.
10%
$480-$490
$0 Vol.
23%
$490-$500
$0 Vol.
30%
$500-$510
$0 Vol.
20%
$510-$520
$0 Vol.
8%
$520-$530
$0 Vol.
11%
$530-$540
$0 Vol.
11%
>$540
$0 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.Recent price action around $494, following fiscal Q4 results that highlighted 18% revenue growth and Azure surpassing $100 billion in annual sales, has shaped trader sentiment for the September 25 close. Market-implied odds place the heaviest weighting on sub-$450 and the $490–$500 band, reflecting ongoing volatility in tech shares, profit-taking after earlier highs near $554, and the absence of immediate catalysts before the next earnings release in late October. Dividend hike and analyst consensus targets above $570 underscore fundamental strength in cloud and AI segments, yet near-term probabilities embed sensitivity to broader equity flows and macroeconomic signals.
This market will resolve according to the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.
Market Opened: Sep 18, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 6:00 PM ETResolution Source
https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.Recent price action around $494, following fiscal Q4 results that highlighted 18% revenue growth and Azure surpassing $100 billion in annual sales, has shaped trader sentiment for the September 25 close. Market-implied odds place the heaviest weighting on sub-$450 and the $490–$500 band, reflecting ongoing volatility in tech shares, profit-taking after earlier highs near $554, and the absence of immediate catalysts before the next earnings release in late October. Dividend hike and analyst consensus targets above $570 underscore fundamental strength in cloud and AI segments, yet near-term probabilities embed sensitivity to broader equity flows and macroeconomic signals.
This market will resolve according to the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 6:00 PM ETResolution Source
https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent price action around $494, following fiscal Q4 results that highlighted 18% revenue growth and Azure surpassing $100 billion in annual sales, has shaped trader sentiment for the September 25 close. Market-implied odds place the heaviest weighting on sub-$450 and the $490–$500 band, reflecting ongoing volatility in tech shares, profit-taking after earlier highs near $554, and the absence of immediate catalysts before the next earnings release in late October. Dividend hike and analyst consensus targets above $570 underscore fundamental strength in cloud and AI segments, yet near-term probabilities embed sensitivity to broader equity flows and macroeconomic signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions