No new pandemic has emerged in 2026, supporting the 94.5% market-implied probability on “No,” as no novel pathogen has achieved sustained global human-to-human transmission meeting WHO pandemic criteria. Ongoing Ebola disease caused by Bundibugyo virus in the DRC, declared a PHEIC in May with over 7,000 cases, shows declining transmission in key provinces per recent WHO assessments, while the multi-country mpox outbreak remains moderate risk with localized spread. Avian influenza strains like H5N1 continue to pose zoonotic concern but lack efficient human adaptation. Surveillance through systems like the WHO Hub and strengthened International Health Regulations, alongside the Pandemic Agreement framework, further bolsters containment. A rapid viral mutation enabling efficient transmission or uncontrolled escalation of current outbreaks could shift odds, though historical patterns indicate such events remain infrequent within a single year.